not many people know
Paul Homewood
A recent UnHerd article by John Rapley in the wake of Hurricane Milton claimed that climate change is exacerbating extreme weather and increasing the economic costs of weather disasters.
Quote:
“The U.S. economy is not prepared for the increasing frequency and intensity of such compound weather events. Among the 10 costliest extreme weather events in the United States, six This has occurred over the past decade and is the result of climate change exacerbating weather patterns.
https://unherd.com/newsroom/will-extreme-weather-events-break-the-us-financial-system
But is there any evidence for this claim?
Far from being the storm of the century as widely claimed in the media, Hurricane Milton was nothing more than a moderate Category 3 storm and, as far as Florida was concerned, an ordinary event. In terms of strength, only ranks 75th The strongest record in American history.
This is the third hurricane to hit Florida this year, following Debbie and Helen, but there's nothing unusual about it. Furthermore, official records since 1851 provide no evidence that hurricanes have become more frequent:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded in its annual review of hurricanes earlier this year: “There is no strong evidence of a century-long increase in hurricanes or major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. “
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
So if hurricanes aren't becoming more frequent or powerful, why are economic losses increasing?
Simply because as a society and as individuals we have more to lose. Florida's population has grown explosively over the years, especially along the coast, which is most vulnerable to hurricanes. This means more housing and infrastructure.
As people become wealthier, they own more assets. They no longer live in log cabins, but in luxurious homes. They own cars, the latest electronic gadgets and designer clothes. On top of that, rising real wages mean that repairing hurricane damage will now cost far more than it did in the past.
Even allowing for the effects of inflation, a weather disaster that might have cost $500 million thirty years ago might now cost $1 billion.
Professor Roger Pielke Jr is one of the leading experts in the field of disaster losses, having studied the subject for thirty years or more. A recent peer-reviewed study he conducted found that there is no long-term trend in losses from Atlantic hurricanes hitting the U.S. when changes in asset values are taken into account (what he calls “normalization”).
Katrina was the costliest hurricane in recent years, but even that couldn't compare to the 1926 Miami hurricane, which effectively wiped the city off the map:
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-media-wont-tell-you-about
Pielke also looked at damage from floods and tornadoes in the United States, both showing significant declines.
Another study by Pielke analyzed global weather damage, and he suggested that 60% of it was caused by hurricanes in the United States! When measured as a percentage of GDP, the long-term trend is downward:
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/dont- believe-the-hype?utm_source=publication-search
Rapley made the mistake of relying on NOAA's billion-dollar disaster database, which does not take into account growth in wealth and GDP. Instead, economic losses are adjusted solely for CPI.
In fact, another peer-reviewed paper published by Pielke this year said the NOAA database was flawed and misleading.
The United States has been ravaged by hurricanes and other weather disasters. But it now has the resources, technology and money to get out of trouble.
A country that has dealt with Hurricanes Miami or Katrina can certainly handle Milton.
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