A recently released study concluded that several small, scattered areas of the northern Antarctic Peninsula have lost all their glaciers from 1986 to 2021.
This ice loss exposes layers of rock and soil beneath the ice, providing an environment for green vegetation to begin growing (Figure 1 below) (see here and here).
Based on these data, the study's authors concluded that this melting and greening process is further evidence that climate change is negatively affecting many aspects of the planet.
However, the study authors failed to incorporate a wealth of relevant atmospheric and geological information into their analysis.
By including this data, it becomes clear that heat from the lava accumulation beneath West Antarctica, rather than climate change, may have caused the “green” area (Figure 1 below).
The following evidence supports this claim.
Atmospheric information
Figure 1 shows the 50-year average surface temperature in Antarctica, compiled by Dr. Eric Stieg based on data collected from 1957 to 2027 (see here).
The researchers measured surface temperatures about 20 feet above Earth's land, glacial ice and seawater, in this case 20 feet above the tops of glacial ice sheets.
The validity of Figure 1 has sparked debate for years because it does not comply with a key tenet of climate change theory, namely that global atmospheric temperatures are uniform throughout the Earth's atmosphere.
However, Figure 1 shows two different surface temperature regions in Antarctica.
The study also reported that from 1950 to 2024, atmospheric temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula increased by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, equivalent to an increase of 0.07 degrees Fahrenheit per year.
By comparison, Earth's atmospheric temperature has risen 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit per year since 1880.
The formation of these two distinct surface temperature zones is caused by the West Antarctic Rift fault system, which is 3,000 miles long, 500 miles wide, and 18 miles deep.
To address the question of how heat from subglacial rock formations can rise upward through the overlying ice without melting completely, consider the process of gradual melting.
When heat begins to melt a glacier, it creates vertical cracks and micro-cracks. These cracks allow heat to rise upward and be released into the atmosphere 20 feet below.
Geological information– south shetland islands
The South Shetland Islands Volcanic Complex is a chain of volcanically active islands 450 miles long and 50 miles wide, parallel to the Antarctic Peninsula (Figure 2).
The volcanic chain contains nine semi-active volcanoes, one volcano that frequently erupts, and an extremely active submarine volcano at the top of a massive lava chamber that rises toward the surface. As the lava chamber accelerates upward, it shakes the solid rock layers above it, creating earthquakes.
Between August and November 2020, the fault forming the South Shetland Islands and the northwest-trending faults connected to the South Shetland Fault experienced 85,000 earthquakes (Figure 4).
These earthquakes are caused by sudden eruptions of massive amounts of molten rock deep within the Earth. The convergence point of these earthquakes is an undersea volcano called ORCA.
The three-mile-wide Deception Island caldera-type volcano and its five smaller volcanoes have erupted nine times in modern times: in 1800, 1827, 1899, 1912, 1969, 1970, 1972 and 1987 (see Figure 3).
This volcano is located at the southern tip of the South Shetland Islands. While it is not currently erupting, it continues to pump significant amounts of heat into the bay. The two-mile-wide circular bay was formed when a supervolcanic eruption blew the top of the volcano off.
Lassen Volcanic Plateau
The Lassen Volcanic Plateau (see here) is located south of the Deception Island volcano. The plateau is 50 miles long and 10 miles wide and has 16 small active volcanoes, one of which is shown in Figure 4 .
None of the 16 small volcanoes are covered by glaciers. They have been volcanically active for the past 125 years, as evidenced by early explorers' discovery of fresh black ash on top of the white glaciers.
A report from a Chilean university noted that during a flyby, black ash appeared around some volcanoes, while undersea volcanic eruptions were observed near the coast of the Lassen Plateau, as well as unusual sea ice melting patterns on all sides of the Lassen Plateau. Plateau (see here).
There is insufficient data to support the study's conclusions
In order to determine the validity of a scientific study's conclusions, researchers must collect sufficient data and information to enhance confidence in the reasonableness of those conclusions. Research on the “greening” of Antarctic climate change does not meet this requirement.
Here are the numbers:
The study pointed out that from 1986 to 2021, the “green” area increased by 5 square miles. The Antarctic continent covers an area of 5,500,000 square miles, and the increase in “green” area represents only 0.00001% of its glacial ice cap.
This small change does not provide enough evidence to confidently conclude that so-called greening caused by climate change will significantly affect the melting of Antarctica's glacial ice sheets.
The authors also claim that atmospheric temperatures over northern West Antarctica have increased by 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 74 years, which they consider extremely abnormal.
However, the average increase is only 0.1 degrees Fahrenheit per year. From 1880 to 2021, Earth's atmospheric temperature increased by 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit per year.
generalize
A just-released study concludes that rapid increases in atmospheric temperatures are caused by heat emitted by human activities. Presumably, this increase will soon contribute to rapid melting of Antarctica's entire ice sheet, including the northern Antarctic Peninsula.
The study cites as evidence to support this claim several scattered small areas of green vegetation that developed in layers of barren rock or soil, neither of which are overlying glaciers.
Many media articles point out that this melting and vegetation growth provides clear evidence that immediate action must be taken to save the Earth's biological and physical environment so that humans can survive.
However, the study's conclusions do not rely on sufficient data or information to prove their validity. There is no doubt that the study's conclusions may be incorrect, and some would argue that it may be misleading.
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James Edward Kamis is a retired geologist with 47 years of experience, holding a Bachelor of Science degree in geology from Northern Illinois University (1973) and a Master of Science degree in geology from Idaho State University (1976). Nearly five decades of research have led him to believe that geological forces significantly influence, or in some cases completely control, climate and climate-related events, as explained in detail on the Plate Climate Theory website. Kamis's new book, “Geological Influences on Climate,” is out now.
Popular photo on Unsplash by James Eades
