Climate change a growing threat to UK agriculture » Yale Climate Connection

Agriculture has always been affected by weather, but climate change is dramatically exacerbating this dependence. British farmers are facing unprecedented disruption, from record rainfall and erratic seasons to more frequent droughts. These climate extremes are not only reshaping the growing cycle but also posing a serious threat to the country's food security.

Recent weather events illustrate this shift. The UK has become increasingly wetter over the past few decades, with the wettest 18 months on record between October 2022 and March 2024, with 1,696mm of rainfall falling across England. The flooding inundated fields and waterlogged soil, severely damaging crops: vegetable production fell by nearly 5% in 2023, and fruit production by 12%.

Extreme hot weather is also intensifying. For example, during the July 2022 heatwave, temperatures hit a record high of 40.3°C in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, causing widespread crop failures, particularly affecting salad leaves, peas and beans.

These severe weather events are not isolated incidents but are reshaping the new normal for British farming. Below, we explore how these disruptions are affecting farming practices, their wider implications, and what can be done to help farms adapt.

Weather shocks: the new normal for British farming

Extreme weather patterns are becoming a defining feature of British farming, disrupting everything from vegetable growing to livestock production. The UK's 2021 Food Security Report identifies climate change as the biggest medium- and long-term risk to domestic food production.

In addition to extreme temperatures, climate change can affect crops and livestock by changing rainfall patterns, reducing water availability and degrading soil quality. It also complicates food supplies by increasing pest and disease exposure and affecting pollinator activity.

• Affected by heavy rain and flooding. Heavy rain and flooding have wreaked havoc on farmland across England, causing soil erosion, damaged crops and delayed sowing. For example, the 2024 potato harvest was severely affected by excess rainfall, causing widespread rot. Storm Babette in 2023 washed out fields, leaving less land for crops and pasture for animals. In Scotland, farmers struggled to save livestock from rising water levels, highlighting the serious impact they are having on crops and animals. In northern England, extreme rainfall during the winter of 2024 made the lambing season particularly difficult, with significant losses caused by hypothermia.

• Challenges of heat and drought. Heatwaves and droughts are also putting new pressures on farmers. Long-term droughts can crack the soil, making it difficult for crops to take root, and increase the risk of flash floods when rains return. Drought can also reduce grass growth and harm livestock feed supplies. For example, during the drought in Wales in 2022-2023, feed costs soared to £265 million.

  Extreme heat can also stress plants and animals, disrupting grazing schedules and feed supplies. Dairy cows, in particular, suffer from high temperatures and dehydration, which affects milk production. A heat wave in July 2022 caused chicken production to drop 9% from the previous year.

  Additionally, as the UK warms, it becomes more suitable for new pests, while beneficial species such as pollinators face habitat loss, further challenging agricultural productivity.

• seasonal changes. Unpredictable weather patterns add another layer of complexity. The traditional growing season has become unreliable, with sudden frosts and unseasonal heat waves disrupting crop cycles. For example, late spring frosts, such as the record-breaking cold snap in April 2021, can severely damage fruit tree flowers and reduce harvests. On the other hand, longer warm seasons may increase the risk of pests and parasites, leading to more problems with liver flukes, helminth parasites and other harmful species.
• Mental health effects. Many farmers say the uncertainty about their livelihoods has exacerbated their stress, anxiety and depression. A recent survey found that 95% of British farmers aged under 40 believe climate change is damaging to their mental health, with many facing the ongoing threat of crop failure, rising costs and market instability.

Beyond the Farm: Food Security and Public Health Risks

The impacts of climate change on agriculture ripple across the economy, with implications for food security and public health. Declining yields and rising production costs are pushing up food prices, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis. Prices of everyday staples such as potatoes, wheat and vegetables are climbing due to shortages. For example, the UK wheat harvest is expected to fall by almost 20% in 2024, with fruit and vegetable prices following a similar trajectory.

In addition, the UK's increasing reliance on imports – more than 47% of food comes from abroad – increases vulnerability. Climate disruptions at home and abroad threaten steady supplies of fresh produce, potentially prompting consumers to switch to cheaper, calorie-dense options and raising public health concerns.

Advancing agricultural development through innovation and adaptation

Climate change poses major challenges, but it also opens the door to innovation. Warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons could temporarily increase yields of crops such as wheat and introduce new fruit varieties. Warmer winters may even reduce livestock raising costs.

However, these benefits are short-lived. As global warming intensifies, extreme weather events – heat waves, floods and droughts – will overshadow any temporary gains. Without major adaptation measures, UK crop yields could decline significantly by mid-century. The third climate change risk assessment warns that if no action is taken, risks to food production, currently rated as “medium”, will be upgraded to “high” by 2050.

To secure the future of British farming, farmers are adopting smart adaptation strategies that combine innovative technology with practical solutions. Permaculture practices such as cover cropping, rotational grazing, and rainwater harvesting are improving soil health, optimizing water and fertilizer use, and helping to maintain yields in harsh conditions. Farmers are also experimenting with climate-adapted crops such as drought-tolerant barley and blight-resistant potatoes to withstand extreme weather and ensure long-term productivity.

The British government is also playing a role. Environmental land management programs provide financial incentives for sustainable practices, such as improving soil health and conserving water. Continued support through policy and infrastructure will drive the necessary progress to enable farmers to adapt and strengthen the resilience of agricultural systems.

Shaping the sustainable future of British agriculture

Farmers are facing the brunt of climate change, but agriculture also directly contributes to global carbon dioxide emissions, a paradox that highlights the urgent need to embrace permaculture.

The reality is that to thrive under the increasing impacts of climate change, agriculture must not only adapt to climate change, but actively contribute to the solution. By embracing innovative farming techniques and supportive policies, the UK can foster a more resilient food system today and into the future.