Plants absorb 31% more CO2 than we thought – what’s the wattage?

A new study shows that plants have been absorbing Carbon dioxide emissions increased by 31% than previously believed. Yes, 31%– A glaring error that casts serious doubts on climate models, emissions scenarios and policy prescriptions such as net zero emissions. For years we have been told that “the science is settled” and urgent action is needed to avoid catastrophic warming. But this finding shows that our models vastly underestimate nature's ability to manage carbon dioxide. The discovery not only upends the rationale behind aggressive policies but also raises broader questions about the supposed certainties of climate science.

The myth of “fixed science”

The term “established science” has been a cornerstone of climate advocacy for decades. We are told that if we do not make rapid and costly changes, we face imminent disaster. Skeptics are treated as heretics, while the so-called consensus is portrayed as unquestionable. However, it turns out that we are 31% wrong About something as basic as plants absorbing carbon dioxide. This is not a minor correction; This is a massive revision that undermines the credibility of the policy-driven model.

Uncovering the secrets of climate patterns

Climate models are tools used to predict warming and guide policy. They are considered scientific classics and drive policies from emissions reduction to renewable energy. But the model's predictions were called into question when a key assumption turned out to be wrong:

1. Exaggerated emissions impacts: Climate models predict rapid accumulation of carbon dioxide, assuming limited natural uptake. This intensifies the urgency for significant emissions reductions. Correcting for higher CO2 uptake rates means CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere more slowly than models predict, weakening the case for urgent, economically difficult measures.
2. Questionable feedback loop: Many models rely on dramatic feedback loops (such as reduced plant carbon dioxide uptake at higher temperatures) to justify urgent interventions. But this new data shows that plants can process more carbon dioxide than expected, making these feedback loops seem less inevitable and more speculative.
3. Policy implications: If the models guiding climate policy are too far off, the entire framework behind policies like net zero becomes shaky. These model-driven policies are Never proven to be beneficialbut only assuming so. The discovery that plants absorb more carbon dioxide undermines the need for extreme measures.

Comprehensive assessment models: Reexamining flawed assumptions

Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) integrate climate and economic data to propose policies that balance costs and benefits. They provide much of the justification for global measures ranging from carbon taxes to renewable energy subsidies. But with CO2 absorption falling by 31%, these models face serious credibility issues.

1. Cost-benefit analysis has lost its foundation: IAM assumes a certain CO2 absorption rate to measure the costs and benefits of abatement. If natural uptake is higher, then the benefits of aggressive curtailment will be less than the model predicts. In short, many of these “benefits” are Assume rather than prove.
2. Marginal abatement costs may be wrong: If plants were more efficient carbon sinks, the cost of each additional ton of CO2 saved in current models may be overstated. This means that the benefits of immediate intervention to slow warming may not justify the high cost.
3. Technology-focused solutions become harder to justify: Given nature’s greater ability to absorb carbon dioxide, expensive technological carbon capture schemes, often seen as the cornerstone of net-zero strategies, become less urgent. Relying on natural processes may be more cost-effective, while prioritizing expensive technological solutions may waste resources.

Net zero push: Unproven and thought to be beneficial

Net-zero policies are often considered to be inherently beneficial, without the need to prove their worth. The assumption is that rapidly reducing emissions will stabilize the climate and prevent catastrophic warming. But reality is far less certain:

1. Urgency based on unproven models: Models that assume much lower natural CO2 uptake rates justify the rush to net zero emissions. As factories absorb more carbon dioxide, the urgency wanes, raising questions about whether the policy is justified beyond just the assumptions of benefit.
2. Economic costs without obvious benefits: The transition to net zero is expected to cost trillions of dollars and require massive infrastructure improvements and energy system overhauls. These changes are necessary to prevent dire consequences, but as natural systems absorb more carbon dioxide, the purported benefits become murkier. The costs are real, while the benefits remain speculative.
3. Assume good logic is flawed: Supporters argue that even if net zero emissions do not deliver the promised benefits, it is better to “proceed with caution”. But this logic ignores the real economic and social costs of these policies—costs that can harm the most vulnerable. If models are wrong about something as fundamental as carbon dioxide absorption, then continuing with these extreme measures without reassessing is irresponsible at best.

Climate sensitivity: Rethinking the crisis narrative

Climate sensitivity measures how much the Earth's temperature would rise if carbon dioxide concentrations doubled. It is a core number in climate models and is typically estimated to be between 1.5°C and 4.5°C, with policy-driven models often assuming a midpoint of 3°C. If plant carbon dioxide uptake rates are so underestimated, it suggests these models may also be overestimating climate sensitivity.

1. Slower carbon dioxide accumulation reduces sensitivity: If natural uptake is higher, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase more slowly, which could mean climate sensitivity is lower than currently assumed. In other words, less carbon dioxide means less direct warming, contradicting dire predictions that justify extreme policies.
2. Overestimated warming scenario: Higher estimates of climate sensitivity have largely driven the urgency for climate action, but this new data suggests the planet may not be warming as fast as claimed. If the worst-case scenario is less likely to occur, then an aggressive emissions reduction timetable looks increasingly unreasonable.
3. It’s time to adapt, not panic: If climate sensitivity is indeed lower, it means we have more time to adapt to any changes that may actually be natural, rather than rushing into drastic mitigation measures that have yet to be proven effective. Given new information about natural absorption rates, adaptation becomes a more reasonable and potentially effective strategy.

The bigger picture: The science isn't settled, and neither is the policy

Discovery of Plant Absorption Carbon dioxide emissions increased by 31% reveals more than we thought about how far off the mark climate models, and model-based policies, may be. This isn't just a matter of tinkering with a few numbers; it's about rethinking the entire narrative of “established science.”

• Assume, not prove: Policies like net zero are based on assumptions of benefit, not evidence. They are desperately needed to prevent catastrophe, but these catastrophic results are based on models that have nearly a third of their core assumptions wrong.
• More surprises await: If this key factor in the carbon cycle is so miscalculated, how many other natural systems might also be misunderstood? The real danger may not be climate change itself, but the overconfidence of those who claim to fully understand it.
• The real risk is bad policy: Extreme measures based on flawed models can do more harm than good. If the costs of policies like “net zero” outweigh their uncertain benefits, pursuing them would be reckless and potentially damaging.

Conclusion: Stop assuming and start reevaluating

Inspiration from plant absorption CO2 emissions increased by 31% Larger than previously estimated, it's a major blow to models driving global climate policy. It challenges the core assumptions behind policies such as net zero, which have never been proven to be beneficial but only assumed in this way. If climate sensitivity is low, warming is slow, and natural carbon dioxide uptake is high, the rush to extreme measures looks increasingly unreasonable.

It’s time for policymakers to recognize that the science is not “settled” yet and that uncertainty remains a defining feature of climate science. Instead of doubling down on unproven policies, pause, reassess, and adapt to changing evidence. Continuing the rush to reach net zero emissions without a fundamental reassessment is unwise; it is a gamble on society’s resources and well-being.

abstract

Terrestrial photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP) is the largest carbon flux in the biosphere, but its global scale and spatiotemporal dynamics remain uncertain¹. Historically, the global average annual GPP was believed to be approximately 120 PgC yr⁻¹ (Ref.^2,3,4,5,6), about 30–50 PgC years⁻¹ lower than the GPP inferred from Oxygen 18 (¹⁸O) Isotopes⁷ and soil respiration⁸. This difference is a source of uncertainty in predicting climate-carbon cycle feedback^9,10. Here we infer GPP from the innovative tracer carbonyl sulfide for carbon dioxide₂ Diffuses from the surrounding air to the leaf chloroplasts through the stomata and mesophyll layers. We demonstrate that explicit representation of mesophyll diffusion is important to accurately quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants. Based on estimates of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants, we infer global contemporary GPP to be 157 (±8.5) PgC yr ⁻¹which is consistent with the estimated value¹⁸from (150–175 BgC years⁻¹) and soil respiration (PgC yr⁻¹), but the confidence level has improved. Our global GPP is higher than estimates driven by satellite optical observations (120-140 PgC years)^–1) for Earth system model benchmarking. This difference occurs primarily in pantropical rainforests and is confirmed by ground measurements¹¹showing that the tropics are more productive than indicated by satellite-based GPP products. As GPP is a major determinant of terrestrial carbon sinks and may shape climate trajectories^9,10our findings lay a physiological foundation upon which to advance understanding and prediction of carbon-climate feedbacks.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08050-3

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