A series of thunderstorms hit the eastern Spanish state of Valencia and nearby areas on Tuesday afternoon and evening, causing catastrophic flooding and becoming one of the country's worst natural disasters in years. Reuters reported that at least 72 people had died as of noon EST on Wednesday.
The worst flooding occurred in the outer areas of the Valencia metropolitan area. As climate scientist Erich Fischer points out, the community of Chihua, about 20 miles (32 kilometers) inland and nearly 1,000 feet (305 m) above central Valencia, reported 160 feet of rain in just one hour. mm (6.3 inches), with precipitation ranging from 343 mm (13.5 inches) in four hours to 491 mm (19.33 inches) in eight hours. Fisher noted that the widespread weather conditions during the current floods were similar to the Valencian floods of mid-October 1957, which killed 81 people and prompted the diversion of the region's major rivers: “Very similar, but now in A warmer, wetter atmosphere.
Floodwaters poured into the sea through narrow streets in many towns and communities in the Valencia region on Tuesday night, piling up cars and stranding people.
Warm and wet weather has been widespread across the Mediterranean this autumn, causing flooding. Human-made climate change caused a two- to three-fold increase in unusually mild temperatures on Wednesday across much of northeastern Spain, and a four- to three-fold increase in unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the western Mediterranean, Climate Central's Climate Change Index showed. eight times (Figure 1).
While the above factors intensified the rainfall, the storm itself was triggered by a “high-over-low” blocking pattern, characterized by a stagnant upper low pressure over Spain (separated from the polar jet stream), and a summer-like upper high pressure, even more so than The upper low pressure anomaly arcs from the northeastern Atlantic through the British Isles and advances towards Northern Europe. Temperatures across Europe have been 5 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit (3-11°C) above average this week, with hot and cold temperatures above average. The stuck weather could bring up to two inches (50 mm) of additional rain to Spain's eastern coast and near-coast next weekend.
This blocking pattern caused moist easterly winds to blow from the Mediterranean towards eastern Spain, creating a deep corridor that spawned a set of severe thunderstorms that moved westward but continued to regenerate near Valencia (see embedded post below).
“Stuck” upper-level features and extreme weather events over Western Europe, although occurring in autumn, are similar to summer patterns and are linked to climate change, a phenomenon known as quasi-resonant amplification that is expected to occur with increasing frequency later this century.
This year saw record and near-record warm oceans in the Northern Hemisphere, pumping huge amounts of moisture into the atmosphere and causing catastrophic flooding. These include several disasters in Africa, Asia, and Europe that we highlighted in our September 18 post, as well as the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Helene in the Appalachian Mountains of the southern United States. Terrifying mid-September flooding in Maiduguri, Nigeria, could have killed as many as 1,000 people due to unusually heavy rains in the semi-arid Sahel region and the collapse of a long-neglected dam, according to a recent New York Times analysis die. Last week, Tropical Storm Trami caused severe flooding in the Philippines, killing at least 81 people and leaving dozens missing.
Super Typhoon Kanglei will bring widespread heavy rain and strong winds to Taiwan
Typhoon Konglei — formerly a supertyphoon with 150 mph winds but still a powerful Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in the hours before landfall — is expected to sweep across Taiwan on Thursday afternoon and evening local time island. major changes According to forecasts days in advance, Kong-Rey has been located east of Taiwan.
As of 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, Conrey's maximum sustained winds (one-minute average) were 140 mph (220 kph), equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. As the storm entered the early stages of its eyewall replacement cycle, Conrey's top winds were expected to drop to Category 3 upon landfall, but the winds would spread over an unusually wide area, along with heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides.
Kang-Lei was close to the top of the typhoon spectrum. It has hurricane-force sustained winds exceeding 230 miles (370 kilometers) and gale-force winds exceeding 450 miles (725 kilometers). Kong-Rey's inner eyewall is about 35 miles (56 kilometers) wide and its outer eyewall is about 170 miles (275 kilometers) wide, with a “moat” of drier air in between.
Taiwan is no stranger to strong typhoons and was well prepared, but Kangrei was large and powerful enough to have a significant impact. Workplaces and schools will be closed across much of the island on Thursday. Rainfall amounts are expected to be well above 500 mm (20 inches) in most of the higher areas of Taiwan's interior and along the coast, with Kong Lei's winds blowing ashore, especially along the central-eastern and northeastern coasts.
Monitoring the Western Caribbean for Patty
A large area of low pressure will form over the southwestern Caribbean over the next few days, with the potential for a named storm to develop in the Atlantic next week. Conditions in the area were generally favorable for development, with wind shear of 10-20 knots, a moist atmosphere and sea surface temperatures near 29°C (84°F), about 0.5-1.0°C above average.
GFS and European models have varying degrees of enthusiasm about the potential for the next named storm to develop here this season, but recent forecasts have been rather tepid on the outlook. Any storms that do occur are likely to move north and then northwest, potentially bringing heavy rain to much of the western Caribbean and adjacent land areas next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook released at 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave a two-day and seven-day chance of disruption at 0 percent and 40 percent, respectively. The next name on the Atlantic storm list is Patty.
The harsh environment of the Gulf of Mexico
If the “Wannabe Patty” does end up in the Gulf of Mexico, the environment there will be even less conducive to development than the two recent catastrophic hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, Helen and Milton. In recent weeks, recurring fall cold fronts have spread cold air over the bay, causing the water to cool significantly. More importantly, the jet stream will shift more southward, which will bring high wind shear and accompanied by dry air, making it difficult for Gulf tropical cyclones to strengthen.
We help millions of people understand climate change and what to do about it. Help us reach more people like you.
Republish our articles for free online or in print under a Creative Commons license.
