With near-record Caribbean temperatures ending the year, Hurricane Rafael continued to strengthen as it approached western Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael is expected to make landfall on Cuba's southwest coast as a Category 3 hurricane in the late afternoon before entering the Gulf of Mexico and lingering for a long time. Rafael's Gulf track remains highly uncertain, although it is expected to weaken sharply before possible landfall in the United States early next week.
At 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 6, Rafael was located 130 miles (205 kilometers) southeast of Havana, Cuba, moving northwest at 14 mph (22 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph / hour (175 km/h), with a maximum sustained wind speed of 110 mph (175 km/h). In the 24 hours that ended at 7 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Rafael's speed quickly intensified to 45 mph (70 km/h), well above the 35 mph (55 km/h) in the 24-hour period. Minimal definition of enhancement.
hurricane #rafael It continues to strengthen its approach to Cuba and is currently expected to make landfall with level 3 intensity. You can see Key West, Florida keeping a close eye on the radar. pic.twitter.com/prQBK9nBNk
— Nick Stewart (@NStewWX) November 6, 2024
Cayman Islands radar and Cuba radar show Rafael is bringing heavy rain to much of southwestern Cuba. An obvious double-eye wall structure appeared on the radar, indicating that the eye-wall replacement cycle may be further moderately strengthened. However, Rafael could reach Category 3 intensity (winds of at least 115 mph or 185 km/h) before coming ashore. Rafael will pass east of Cuba's Isla de la Juventud before making landfall on Cuba's sparsely populated southwestern coast, about 50 miles west-southwest of Havana.
At 9:50 a.m. EST on Wednesday, Isla del Sur, a small Cuban island in Rafael's path, recorded sustained winds of 58 mph and gusts to 79 mph when Rafael The center is passing to the west at a distance of about 30 miles (50 kilometers).
Raphael's influence on Cuba:Major Threat to Electricity
Rafael is expected to land in Cuba at an inopportune time, as Cuba's largest power plant, the Antonio Guitras power plant, suffered a nationwide blackout from October 18 to 21 and the country's power grid continues to be unstable. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast has Rafael maintaining hurricane strength as it passes through western Cuba, about 50 miles west of the capital, Havana (population 2.1 million). Tropical storm-force winds extended more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) northeast of the center of Rafael, and the forecast path would put the city in the dangerous front-right quadrant of the storm, causing many of its dilapidated buildings to sustain severe wind damage and many toppled trees and power lines.
Cuba's power infrastructure is very weak. The possible large-scale power outage in western Cuba may last for a long time, and the national power grid may face the risk of collapse.
Rafael's fourth Caribbean storm to land in 2024
Rafael will become the fourth named storm to make landfall on a Caribbean island in 2024.
- On July 1, Hurricane Beryl hit Carriacou, Grenada as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, causing catastrophic damage and killing at least five people in the Lesser Antilles.
- Hurricane Ernesto passed through the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on August 13 and 14 with winds of 45 to 65 mph, causing $150 million in damage but no fatalities, according to Gallagher Re.
- Hurricane Oscar passed the Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas on October 20, striking northeastern Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph. At its peak, Oscar's winds reached hurricane strength and was just 5.75 miles (9.25 kilometers) from the center, making it the smallest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded. Oscar was blamed for the deaths of seven people in Cuba.
hurricane #rafael Recommendation 12: Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 10:00 AM ET
Full forecast details are available at: https://t.co/TeLLMFmCkN pic.twitter.com/QGgG6rLvpc
— National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) November 6, 2024
Heavy rain hits southeastern U.S. on Wednesday
Ahead of Rafael, the southeastern United States may experience heavy rains due to moist airflow, as Rafael is embedded in unusually large areas of atmospheric moisture in early November. The National Weather Service has classified much of Georgia and southwestern South Carolina as a “moderate risk” area for Wednesday's rainfall, where three to five inches of rain could fall, with locally higher amounts possible.
There is a moderate risk in our outlook for excessive rainfall on day one. More details: https://t.co/FQU5sbmsxo pic.twitter.com/5wfyoj2wiq
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) November 6, 2024
Bay Rafael Weather Forecast
After Rafael passes through Cuba, prevailing steering currents will carry it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then on a gradually westward arc toward the south-central Gulf by Thursday. Beyond this, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether Rafael will continue westward or even southwestward toward the Mexican coast, rather than northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. As the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts, as high pressure develops in and around the West Gulf, weakening steering currents could allow Rafael to stall in the West Gulf around Sunday or Monday, and/or not Move steadily. Early Wednesday, most members of the GFS model team, as well as some members of the European model team, showed that Rafael eventually headed north toward the central U.S. Gulf Coast (see Figure 1)
The situation in the Gulf of Mexico was far less supportive of Rafael. Although sea surface temperatures will be warmer at about 28 degrees Celsius (82°F), wind shear will increase to the 15-25 mph range and over time very dry air will enter the circulation from the north and west, weakening Raphael's Showers and thunderstorm activity. The National Hurricane Center expects Rafael to leave Cuba as a hurricane but gradually weaken to below hurricane strength by the end of the week. If Rafael does take a more westward route into Mexico, it may experience less wind shear and retain more strength. None of the models show Rafael reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane.
Another riot heads west to the Bahamas
A tropical disturbance located hundreds of miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph on Wednesday and will bring 1-2 weeks of heavy rain to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic and the Southeast on Thursday. . Five of the Bahamas. 6Z Some members of the European model cluster on Wednesday, as well as most members of the GFS model cluster, indicated that this disturbance would develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by early next week. Sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm—enough to support a tropical cyclone; however, wind shear and land interactions with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba may interfere with development.
In its Tropical Weather Outlook released at 7 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave the system a 20% and 30% chance of development in 2 and 7 days, respectively. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Sarah.
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