In his paper, “The relative importance of carbon dioxide and water in the greenhouse effect: Does the tail wag the dog?”Demetris Koutsoyiannis discusses the main drivers of the greenhouse effect, arguing that water vapor and clouds contribute far more than carbon dioxide (CO2). Koutsoyiannis uses a radiative transfer model (MODTRAN) to analyze downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation and derive macroscopic relationships that quantitatively express greenhouse gas effects. His calculations show that water vapor and clouds contribute between 87% and 95% of the greenhouse effect, while the impact of carbon dioxide is only about 4% to 5%. The findings also indicate that the recent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from 300 ppm to 420 ppm has had a negligible impact – the impact on downwelling and outward radiation was quantified at 0.5%.
abstract
Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive the macroscopic relationship
Downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation, partial derivatives can be determined
among them regarding the explanatory variables representing greenhouse gases. We verify
These macro relationships use empirical formulas based on descending radiation data,
Commonly used for outgoing radiation in hydrology and satellite data. We use the relation –
Ships and their partial derivatives infer the relative importance of carbon dioxide and water
Vapor in the greenhouse effect. The results show that the contribution of the former is 4%~5%,
Water and clouds dominate, accounting for 87% – 95%. Carbon has less impact
The presence of sulfur dioxide is confirmed by the small, imperceptible effects of recent increases in atmospheric concentrations.
CO2 concentration is 300 to 420 ppm. For downwelling, this effect is quantified as 0.5%
and radiating outward. Water and clouds also play other important roles in climate, e.g.
Regulating heat storage and albedo, and cooling the Earth's surface through latent heat
Transfer, invest 50%. By identifying the major role of water on climate, these results suggest
Hydrology should play a more prominent and active role in climate research.Keywords: greenhouse effect; long wave radiation; water vapor; carbon dioxide; evaporation
radiative forcing
Submitted on September 22, 2024, accepted on October 28, 2024. https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202411/01A good rule of thumb to remember is that anything that calls itself “science” probably isn't.
JR Searle(1984)
The paper puts the findings against the widely held view that carbon dioxide is a key driver of Earth's greenhouse effect. Kusoyanis believes that water's abundance and rapid hydrological cycle allow it to dominate atmospheric temperature regulation, effectively acting as a major greenhouse gas. He claims that the historical focus on carbon dioxide has distorted climate research, diminished the role of hydrology and limited a complete understanding of climate dynamics.
Kousouyanis also criticized mainstream climate science views, which he said were too intertwined with political agendas. He noted that discussions in prominent journals viewed carbon dioxide as a “control knob” on climate, but he found that this claim was not supported by empirical evidence. By applying his model, he challenged the idea that removing carbon dioxide would significantly change Earth's climate; instead, he argued that water vapor would continue to regulate temperatures through its dominant greenhouse effect and short atmospheric residence time.
The study combines data from the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite radiation measurements (particularly from the CERES programme) for verification. These data sets provide insights into radiation distribution and support the authors' contention that regional variations and rapid cycling of water vapor allow it to exert a powerful greenhouse effect unmatched by carbon dioxide.
However, Koutsoyiannis acknowledges that the hypothetical removal of carbon dioxide often discussed in theoretical studies lacks empirical support because carbon dioxide has been part of the Earth's atmosphere over geological time scales. He also contrasted the rapid turnover of water vapor with the longer residence time of carbon dioxide, highlighting the latter's well-mixed nature in the atmosphere as a potential reason why its warming effects appear to be spreading.
Through his analysis, Koutsoyiannis calls for a reorientation of climate research, urging the scientific community to pay more attention to hydrology and to reconsider the central role of carbon dioxide in climate models. He concludes that understanding of Earth's climate may be limited by the current emphasis on carbon dioxide emissions, which he believes ignores the nuances and region-specific effects of water vapor.
all in all, “Does the tail wag the dog?” is a critique of the prevailing climate science paradigm, advocating for a model that acknowledges water vapor and clouds as the most important greenhouse gases while downplaying the overall impact of carbon dioxide. Kousouyanis's paper encourages a shift in climate research focus toward hydrology and questions the mainstream positioning of carbon dioxide as a cornerstone of climate change theory.
In addition, Koutsoyiannis also posted reviewer comments on his previous attempts to publish in other journals.
This document is supplementary information to the paper “The relative importance of carbon dioxide and water in the greenhouse effect: Does the tail wag the dog?” It contains interesting material as it illustrates the current practice of suppressing voices that differ from mainstream views of what is considered scientific. The information included includes rejection documents from three journals, namely Hydrological Sciences Journal, MDPI Hydrology, and EcoHydrology and Engineering. This file contains all comments and responses, as well as key communications with the journal's editorial office. A response to the comment is included if the editor accepts the rebuttal request, otherwise no response is prepared. [See the paper at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/385590387]
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