Super Typhoon Manyi (known as Pepito in the Philippines) made landfall on Catanduanes Island in the Philippines at 9:40 pm local time on Saturday, November 16. The storm intensity was Category 5 and the wind speed was 160 mph. , with a central pressure of 921 mb, determined by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Typhoons in November dealt an unprecedented blow to the Philippines. “Manyi” was the fourth typhoon to hit the country in less than 10 days. Four landing points:
- Typhoon Silver Star (Category 4): November 7
- Typhoon Houzhi (Category 1): November 11
- Super Typhoon Utu (Category 4): November 14
- Super Typhoon Munyi (Level 5): November 16
Even before Manyi, three landfalls this month had killed at least 160 people and displaced more than 9 million, according to the Associated Press. Additionally, according to Gallagher Re, there are nine additional tropical storms or typhoons that have caused damage or casualties in the Philippines in 2024:
- Typhoon Ivania (tropical storm landfall): May 24-27: 6 deaths, $20 million in damage
- Typhoon Gaimi (not making landfall) July 24-25: $177 million in damage
- Typhoon Shanshan (not making landfall): August 28
- Typhoon Yagi (landfall as tropical storm): September 1-9
- Typhoon Bebinka (not making landfall): September 13-16
- Tropical Storm Sulik (tropical storm landfall): September 15-19
- Typhoon Krathon (not making landfall): September 29-30
- Tropical Storm Trami (landfall as tropical storm): October 24
- Typhoon Kangrui (not making landfall): October 30
Average number of Cat 5s in 2024
Super Typhoon Manyi is the fifth Category 5 typhoon on earth this year. Other Category 5 storms include two Atlantic hurricanes, Beryl and Milton, one western Pacific typhoon, Yagi, and one eastern Pacific hurricane, Christie. The strongest tropical cyclone of 2024 is Hurricane Milton, with peak winds of 180 mph and a central pressure of 899 mb.
The global average for the entire calendar year from 1990 to 2023 is 5.3 Cat 5s, so this year we are close to the average. The record was 12 Cat 5s in one year, set in 1997.
If we look at the number of Category 5 storms that have occurred since 1982 (the year most commonly used in the scientific literature to begin studying global tropical cyclone trends due to the global availability of high-quality satellite data) Cat 5 has increased significantly (Figure 1 above ). There has been a similar increase in the number of very severe tropical cyclones with wind speeds of at least 180 mph (290 km/h, see Figure 2 below).
According to the 2020 review paper “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part 2: Anticipated Responses to Anthropogenic Warming” by 11 hurricane scientists, as the climate warms, the proportion of global tropical cyclones reaching Category 4 and 5 intensity is likely to will increase, 8 out of 11 authors rated it as medium to high confidence Three authors rated it high confidence. The median expected change from a 2°C increase in temperature above pre-industrial temperatures is +13%. However, experts are divided on whether this is actually the case. Digits The number of Category 4 and 5 storms will increase globally as most model studies indicate reduce The total number of tropical cyclones that occur in a warmer climate. Paper published by Chand in 2022 et al.Global warming leads to a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones, suggesting that this downward trend in the total number of global tropical cyclones may already be observable.
As of November 16, 2024 has produced 57 tropical cyclones, according to a global database maintained by Colorado State University. This total is very close to January 1st to November 1st. The average of 16 observed between 1991 and 2020 is 58.
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Sala continue to plague Honduras
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Sara continued to move west along the coast of Honduras on Saturday, dumping heavy rains along its path. As of 1 p.m. ET, Sara was centered about 20 miles west of Roatan Island, Honduras, moving west at 4 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
La Ceiba receives more than 35 inches of rain in most areas #Honduras Experiencing historic floods #Sarah. Firefighters across the country have carried out multiple rescue operations 🌀🚒
Photo credit: Honduran firefighters via Storyful pic.twitter.com/XWFm5yEiyB
—WeatherBug (@WeatherBug) November 16, 2024
On Saturday, European and Global Flying Services forecast models and their entire membership agreed that Sara would gradually accelerate over the coming days while tilting towards the northwest. The track will take Sara through Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in southern Mexico from early Sunday to early Monday. The overland track will weaken Sarah, and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will dissipate as it emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The aftermath of Sara could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, along the Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to Big Bend, Florida.
Fortunately, Sara never managed to intensify into tropical storm intensity. This could go a long way in sparing Honduras from the widespread catastrophic effects of a powerful hurricane that weakens as it stalls over or near the vulnerable country (see our post on Friday). Although the Sala Cell moves dangerously slowly and westward along the coast of Honduras, the extent of heavy rainfall has been decreasing near the center of the Sala Cell. No deaths related to Sala had been reported as of early Saturday, but local news sources reported one death in Honduras and two in the Dominican Republic, according to The Associated Press and Reuters. Fortunately, no serious flooding was reported in San Pedro Sula (metropolitan area population 1.4 million). . However, it may take some time for reports of damage and injuries to trickle out from smaller settlements in the worst-affected areas.
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