Chris Morrison
Some of the poorest and most vulnerable members of society in England and Wales are losing out on cold weather benefits worth millions of pounds as officials rely on data from corrupt Met Office temperature measuring stations. In 2022-23 we are paying £130m in cold weather payments to around 5 million households, but the annual figure is likely to be higher if more accurate local temperature measurements are used.
The Cold Weather Payment is paid automatically to those on a range of means-tested benefits and is triggered when the seven-day average temperature falls below 0 degreesohC. (Scotland uses a different system.) Temperature measurements are taken from 63 Met Office sites in England and Wales, but more than half of these sites have an internationally recognized uncertainty of between 2°C and 5°C. ”. Payments in rural areas around Sheffield depend on readings from the city's site, which is rated Level 5 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with an error margin of 5°C. The site, located off the A57, is covered in urban thermal erosion and will record temperatures much higher than those in the surrounding Peak District.
Estimates of thermal corruption in cities vary, with EU weather service Copernicus saying it could cause temperature measurements “as high as 10ohC higher than in rural areas”. A recent scientific paper written by 37 scientists from 18 countries found that urban heat accounts for about 40% of the warming recorded since 1850. The urban temperature mix shows a long-term warming trend of 0.89°C per century, while the rural-only collection warms only 0.55°C per century.
The Bureau of Meteorology, which plays an important role in the World Meteorological Organization, classifies temperature stations into five levels. Levels 1 and 2 are considered pristine without any uncertainty. The error margin is +/- 1°C for level 3, +/- 2°C for level 4 waste and +/- 5°C for level 5 super waste. As Paul Homewood points out, these negative and positive errors tend not to cancel each other out as they do in other fields because of their random nature. “Through temperature records,” he said, “poor location almost always increases underlying temperatures.”
The Met Office scored very poorly in terms of ratings, daily skeptic A recent Freedom of Information request found that nearly eight of its 10 sites were classified as Level 4 and 5. But it appears to be more tolerant of nearby heat damage, with only 27 out of 380 sites said to be “unsatisfactory”.
The cold weather payment, not to be confused with the winter fuel subsidy to pensioners that was scrapped by the New Labor government, pays £25 during cold weather to those deemed to be financially or physically vulnerable. Families with children under the age of five will receive additional consideration. During 2022-23, many districts made three payments from November to March. But luck appears to play a role in these payouts. The condition of four weather stations used to record low temperatures in England and Wales was so bad that even the Met Office deemed them “unsatisfactory”. These include Hawarden Airport (site of the national temperature “record” for Wales), Little Rissington, Redesdale and Pembrey Sands.
The payment system works by assigning postcodes from surrounding areas to specific locations. Heathrow Airport has the most postcodes and seems to cover most of London. Heathrow is a level 3 airport with an uncertainty of 1°C, but many consider this to be generous as it is one of the busiest airports in the world. Most nights of the year, you're unlikely to see significant frosts because the heat collected by miles of concrete and asphalt roads during the day is released, raising temperatures. As with most cities, nighttime temperatures at airports can be higher than in surrounding unpolluted areas. For example, Copernicus noted that temperatures in cities such as London and Paris are “often” around 4°C higher than in rural areas.
It is likely (in fact almost certain) that temperature records in cities and airports will reduce the number of 7-day 0°C average temperature periods in the wider area. If so, many of the poorest and most vulnerable people in rural areas would miss out on this financial assistance.
We thank citizen journalist Ray Sanders for bringing this entirely avoidable scandal to our attention. Commenting on the high number of trigger points found in areas known to be affected by urban heat, he noted: “The Met Office must have been aware of this issue, they certainly weren't that naive, or it's just possible they never considered it – just painted Come out. Regardless, the responsibility must lie with them as they are supposed to be the experts in the field and the DWP [Department of Work and Pensions] Just ask them for advice.
As we have seen in many past articles, the Met Office is at the forefront of promoting the net zero fantasy. But one might argue that buying supercomputers and using climate models comes at the expense of investing in a robust network of stations that can accurately measure natural temperatures. Essential jobs – day-to-day jobs, one might say – are not getting the care they need. The network is spread across unsuitable locations such as airports, solar farms, parking lots and electrical substations. To make matters worse, not much thought seems to have gone into the placement of the new sites, which are typically in level 4 and 5 locations. Garbage in means garbage out, no matter how politically convenient that may be for narrative-driven mainstream activists. As the Met Office did with this flawed data, producing readings that purportedly measured temperatures as low as one hundredth of a degree Celsius, it was nothing more than a scientific joke.
Obvious issues surrounding the Met Office's temperature-measuring capabilities have so far been ignored. Discussing this issue risks opening a Pandora’s box, as it would subject pro-net zero data to greater scrutiny. It will be interesting to see if this position holds up, as there are suggestions that its figures could prevent poorer and vulnerable members of society from receiving much-needed cold weather payments.
Chris Morrison is daily skepticenvironment editor.
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