Oh look, The Guardian Here we go again, a hot dish of climate hysteria laced with precocious child activism. This time, they rescued a 17-year-old surfer from Brazil to teach us all at COP29 how the ocean is allegedly “warming.” Because, obviously, who needs thermometers, satellite data, or rigorous ocean temperature reconstructions when you have a preteen rowing on a foam board?
As a surfer, I'm out in the ocean a lot, and I can definitely feel the ocean getting warmer.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2024/nov/19/cop29-climate-summit-live-updates-world-leaders-in-baku-azerbaijan?CMP=share_btndf1086block-673c55e78f0866cddf1b7a15
Here's what happened: The child “noticed that the ocean was getting warmer,” the Guardian breathlessly reported. Wow, stop the media! Jacques Cousteau Jr. of Cornwall has announced it! I'm sure every scientist working on the ARGO buoys and analyzing hundreds of years of proxy data is ready to throw in the towel because we've discovered the ultimate climate measurement device: “the personal sensory meter of 17 years ago.”
But things will get better. The kid was apparently speaking on behalf of Surfers Against Wastewater. Yes, you read that right. The name alone sounds like it came straight out of a Monty Python sketch. Their trick? Confusing ocean pollution, sewage overflows and global climate trends is a form of environmental alarmism.
However, here's the problem. Despite breathtaking claims and emotional appeals, ocean temperature measurements themselves are fraught with uncertainty. You see, when it comes to understanding ocean warming, scientists have been collecting data for decades using methods such as shipboard thermometers, satellites, ARGO buoys, and reconstructions of coral and sediment cores. Guess what? These methods are often inconsistent.
ARGO buoys, for example, provide relatively recent snapshots, whereas historical reconstructions rely on proxies that, to be generous, allow for interpretation. Measurement coverage is patchy at best—deep-sea data remains elusive, and even surface readings show considerable variation, depending on location and season. When you try to average this mess into a single global ocean temperature anomaly, the error bars are about as wide as the English Channel itself.
And what about those models that everyone loves to show off? They are based on mountains of assumptions. Sure, we have rough trends, but once you start asking detailed questions like “How much variation is natural?” confidence plummets. or “What role do deep-sea circulation play?” However, despite these known limitations, we should take the anecdote of a 17-year-old surfer as the key to the case.
Let’s be honest: The oceans are vast, covering more than 70% of the Earth’s surface and with an average depth of more than two miles. Measuring its temperature accurately is a daunting challenge that makes making a Swiss watch seem like child's play. But here it comes The Guardianpeddles the idea that the changes a child wearing a wetsuit can feel are too subtle for many instruments to consistently detect.
Let’s not lose sight of the larger absurdity here. Will Xi Jinping suddenly decide to close his coal-fired power plants after reading the Cornwall surfer oracle? Will India stop providing electricity to rural areas because a 17-year-old girl thought her sea swim was a little too hot? Of course not. This is pure drama, designed to elicit emotion rather than address reality.
The real question is, even if the ocean warms, how likely are we to accurately predict it? If the best science comes with huge uncertainties, turning to anecdotes can feel like throwing darts blindfolded and hoping to hit the bullseye. It doesn't look serious on the surface.
So, for The Guardian:Next time, try citing evidence that doesn’t disappear under the first wave of scrutiny or logic. To the young surfers: keep riding the waves and having fun. But when it comes to ocean temperatures, let's leave the analysis to the professionals—preferably those who acknowledge the huge uncertainties in the data they're dealing with. Or, at least, someone who doesn't think their wetsuit can double as a thermometer.
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