The South China Morning Post recently published an article titled “Climate change may have played a role in the region's record number of super typhoons, Hong Kong meteorologist says,” claiming that climate change “may” have caused the record number of typhoons. A super typhoon in the northwest Pacific Ocean of the year. [emphasis, links added]
The title is misleading, with the word “maybe” carrying a heavy weight. The claims made in the article itself are neither more cautious nor less alarmist.
Although the conditions for the formation of typhoons this year are good, There is no evidence that tropical cyclones are becoming more common or more intense, as shown by trends in long-term data.
In 2024, there were 25 named tropical storms in the northwest Pacific, including 8 super typhoons (equivalent to Category 4 or 5 hurricanes).
According to the South China Morning Post, the former director of the Hong Kong Meteorological Observatory wrote on social media: “Rising seawater temperatures are conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones,” This “is also the first time in November that four tropical cyclones have appeared in the northwest Pacific at the same time.”
While warm ocean waters are indeed a known factor in the formation of tropical cyclones, they are only one of them.
Other factors, such as wind shear, must also be suitable for severe storms to formInterestingly, the South China Morning Post article acknowledged the quote from another Observatory scientist, Liang Yongwu.
The South China Morning Post explains, “Global warming is just [a] Factors leading to the formation of tropical cyclones.
Liang Zhenying said that the sea surface temperature will be higher in 2023, but there will not be so many typhoons. “[t]This explains why sea surface temperature is not the only factor.
The South China Morning Post went on to list wind circulation and vertical wind shear as factors. Neither Leung nor the South China Morning Post attempted to link these conditions to climate change.
Address rising sea surface temperatures; although there is evidence that sea surface temperatures may gradually increase, Ocean temperatures may have increased only about 0.7°C (1.26°F) since 1880 According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information and described in Climate Overview: Ocean Temperatures.
According to the South China Morning Post, abnormal temperatures in the North Pacific this year were a full degree above normal.
This is well beyond the average warming range of just a few tenths of a degree per year, The peak is likely the ongoing influence of the natural El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)It has been in a warm phase since 2023, although it has started to cool down recently.
Regarding the formation of tropical cyclones, data compiled by meteorologist Ryan Maue show that globally, The frequency of major hurricanes has dropped slightly since the 1990s, and despite warmer waters this year, hurricane frequency is still fairly average. (see picture below)
Although compared to some media reports to which we responded climate realism, The South China Morning Post article is relatively balanced; It is unreasonable to link a region's annual above-average sea surface temperatures and number of supercyclones to climate change.
Various factors affect sea surface temperature and the formation and intensity of typhoons. None of these were on an upward trend during the recent mild warming.
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