Vijay Jayaraj
As the global energy landscape shifts in the shadow of the seismic political developments of November 2024, the world finds itself entangled in a complex web of geopolitics, market manipulation and environmental debate.
In recent weeks we have seen the return of chief climate skeptic Donald Trump to world leadership and the conspicuous absence of key leaders from the COP29 annual summit on “green” energy. These highlight emerging narratives from Africa, Asia and Latin America that suggest energy security and national sovereignty have become undeniable priorities.
A unified Western-led decarbonization process has given way to a more complex reality in which economic and social pressures to create wealth in developing countries drive ever-increasing fossil fuel consumption.
The future of the world’s largest oil producer
Donald Trump’s electoral victory has once again encouraged many countries to reassess their current climate policies. His plan includes expanding offshore drilling, reviving coal mining and eliminating unnecessary and costly federal support for intermittent energy sources.
His appointment of Chris Wright to lead the Department of Energy (DOE) underscores his administration's focus on placing hydrocarbons at the heart of U.S. energy security. In fact, this is the first time that the energy department has appointed a head of energy, which makes the direction of U.S. policy starting in January more obvious.
COP29: A gathering in isolation
COP29, the United Nations' annual climate circus in Baku, Azerbaijan, has gained popularity due to people absent or leaving early. Leaders of China, India and Russia (some of the world’s largest energy consumers) have chosen to prioritize other platforms, such as the BRICS-led Kazan Declaration, which emphasizes energy security rather than reducing the use of fossil fuels.
While some Western countries continue to devoutly adhere to pseudoscience-based hostility to hydrocarbons, climate rebellion in the developing world is growing louder. Countries such as India lambast the hypocrisy of rich countries that demand “decarbonization” without offering viable alternatives to coal, oil and gas.
Notably, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared fossil fuels a “gift from God” when hosting the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in his capital, where solar and wind energy were respected. The announcement, coupled with Azerbaijan's plans to expand natural gas production, underscores the irony of the petro-state hosting a climate summit aimed at phasing out fossil fuels.
Argentine President Javier Milei withdrew his 80-member delegation from COP29 less than a third of the way into the 11-day event.
All in all, the event appeared to be a dismal failure, leaving one wondering whether the final nail in the coffin of the climate industry would be properly addressed at this year's event. On the other hand, more than a dozen major energy-consuming countries agreed to ensure reliable supplies of fossil fuels at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
Fossil fuels in Asia, Africa and South America
Yes, China and India are gobbling up coal, and they aren't stopping anytime soon. However, the amount of fossil fuels produced and consumed by other developing countries receives little media attention.
Japan, for example, has gone all out to secure new markets for natural gas imports and has the world's largest imported natural gas storage facilities. Indonesia also plans to increase coal absorption and production.
Ecuador has also discovered more oil and gas during ongoing exploration in Suriname and Guyana. The shale gas boom in Argentina's Rio Negro province, the abundant oil production in Colombia's Llanos Basin, and Petrobras' prediction that Brazil's third-quarter net profit will exceed US$5 billion, all declare that the South American oil and gas industry is unstoppable.
Africa is becoming the focus of new oil and gas development. South Africa's energy minister candidly acknowledged the need for fossil fuels for energy security at Africa Energy Week, reflecting the wider African narrative. New oil and gas fields across the continent, from Namibia’s Orange Basin to Uganda’s Tilunga and Kingfisher fields, are demonstrating the priority of economic development over climate concerns.
While European countries redouble their efforts to meet climate goals, many developing countries are prioritizing economic growth through fossil fuels. The changes reveal the rupture of a historically uneasy global alliance on climate action and highlight hydrocarbons' enduring role in powering the world.
As the dust settles, the outlines of a new energy order are beginning to emerge—one defined by pragmatism, regional alliances and outspokenness about the waning state of doomsday cults.
This comment was first published at City Hall on November 30, 2024.
Vijay Jayaraj is a scientific research assistant carbon monoxide2 allianceArlington, VA. he He holds a master's degree in environmental science from the University of East Anglia, UK, a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, and a bachelor's degree in engineering from Anna University, India.
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