Article by Eric Worrell
Apparently Trump should tell voters how climate change is driving inflation.
The “doomsday cycle” of climate change and geopolitical instability is beginning
Published: December 9, 2024 11:21 pm (AEDT)
Laurie Laybourn Visiting Researcher at the Institute of Global Systems, University of Exeter
James Dyken, Associate Professor of Earth System Science, University of ExeterThere is a widespread belief that geopolitics hinders climate action. From the war in Ukraine to trade tensions, it seems like every year another pressing priority emerges, diverting attention from the urgency of taking action on climate change.
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This is a vicious cycle. Climate change undermines climate action by destabilizing geopolitics. This will exacerbate climate change, mean more geopolitical instability, and more. The risk is that this “doomsday loop” operates faster and faster, eventually destroying our ability to phase out fossil fuels quickly enough to avoid the worst climate consequences.
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climate inflation
The recent election of Donald Trump provides a potential case study in how this doom cycle can begin to emerge.
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In the years leading up to the election, the United States experienced its highest inflation rate in more than four decades. Although inflation eventually fell, many Americans were unable to cope with the sharply higher prices. Trump made inflation a major focus of his campaign, and it clearly played a role in his victory. He did not mention how climate change is increasingly a factor driving inflation.
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The current link between climate change, inflation and politics is a “weak signal” of how the consequences of climate change will frustrate our collective ability to address its causes. In a recent academic paper, we called this risk “derailment risk”—the risk that the world ultimately fails to stay on track to rapidly phase out fossil fuels and avoid the worst climate consequences.
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Learn more: https://theconversation.com/a-doom-loop-of-climate-change-and-geopolitical-instability-is-beginning-244705
I cannot deny the fact that thousands of children's understanding of the world will be shaped by these people.
On the one hand, they claim that the impact of climate change on inflation is being ignored. Then they immediately go on to say that climate change is a weak signal.
Of course, if the signal for climate-driven inflation is weak, it will be ignored. There are obviously other causes for the inflation that most people are currently experiencing, such as skyrocketing energy prices caused by climate activists' punitive political attacks on fossil fuel companies.
The obvious follow-up question is, will global warming be a strong signal on any time scale that we care about?
A quick look at Earth's ancient history tells us that climate change is unlikely to be a concern on any reasonable time scale.
First, the Earth is currently too cold, not too hot. We are all locked into the Late Cenozoic Ice Age, which began 34 million years ago and shows no signs of releasing its effects. The Earth thrived in much warmer conditions and with much higher carbon dioxide levels than today. There is considerable evidence that the Earth's biomass-carrying capacity has been significantly reduced during the current ice age compared with previous warm periods.
During an ice age like the one we are currently experiencing in the late Cenozoic, ice poses a much greater threat than global warming. Don't be fooled by the current interglacial period. The Last Glacial Maximum was so severe that it may have been close to an extinction-level event.
As we approach the end of the Holocene, we shouldn't worry about an imperceptible fraction of the global temperature drop, we should worry about today, the here and now, and what we can do to remove barriers to prosperity and economic happiness.
If we have any concerns about long-term issues, it should be focusing on ensuring that ice no longer threatens the extinction of all life on Earth – which is a bigger problem than whether your rose garden is blooming weeks earlier than normal long-term problem.
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