Substack from Robert Bryce
Another wind drought has sent electricity prices soaring across Europe. Norway, which exports electricity to its European neighbors, has had enough.
Robert Bryce
For the second time in a month, Germany's power grid has been hit by a wind drought, known as “wind drought” in German. Dark and calm. The lack of wind power has sent European electricity prices soaring to their highest levels since late 2022, when Europe was plunged into an energy crisis amid concerns about Russian gas supplies. It's telling that Europe – and Germany in particular – now appears to be in a permanent energy crisis.
Yesterday, German consumers paid an average of $400 per megawatt hour for electricity. At its peak, prices on the German wholesale electricity market were close to $1,000 per megawatt hour, the highest level in 18 years. The following is a report by a Spanish reporter nation The newspaper explained the situation:
dark calm It's a cursed word in the German power industry. The classic combination of cold anticyclones, low temperatures (increasing demand) and an almost complete lack of wind (hindering wind power generation) creates one of the worst-case scenarios for electricity prices: It forces more natural gas to be burned in the air. Much higher, which adds significantly to the expense… The main factor behind this upgrade is the lack of wind energy. Germany's strong wind power sector (onshore and offshore) usually averages close to 20 gigawatts (GW) of electricity this time of year, making it the country's main source of electricity, according to specialist portal Montel, but on Wednesday it The capacity will be just over 3 GW. Solar photovoltaics are also operating well below their potential due to cloudy skies, forcing combined cycle power plants (which burn natural gas to generate electricity) to run at higher speeds than usual, driving up prices.
The wind drought didn't just hit Germany. As the chart at the top of this article shows, electricity prices across Europe soared during the wind drought. In response, Norwegian politicians have pledged to remove undersea cables linking Norway's power grid to the European continent to protect Norwegians from Europe's volatile electricity markets. Norway generates 90% of its electricity from hydropower, and its electricity prices hit record highs this week despite full reservoirs.
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According to X from Norwegian news outlet Visegrád 24, two cables connecting Norway and Europe will reach the end of their technical life in 2026 and 2027. Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. “The situation is terrible,” the outlet quoted Norway's energy minister as saying.
Visegrád 24 also quoted Swedish Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister Ebba Busch as saying, “I am angry with the Germans.” The article goes on to explain that due to Germany’s decision to shut down nuclear power plants, “people in southern Sweden and southern Norway are now [to] Pay $5 and get a 10-minute shower.
As the chart above shows, German wind energy production plummeted for the third time this week. During each wind lull, the power gap is filled by gas-fired generation. As I explained last month, during the first dark calm Best of the Year:
The recent drought further proves Germany’s folly energy transitionIt's an extremely expensive effort to force the country to abandon hydrocarbons and switch to alternative energy sources. In September, a study was published in international sustainable energy magazine It is estimated that between 2002 and 2022, energy transition Germany lost $746 billion. Of this, more than half is used for alternative energy production and distribution. The remainder is used for subsidies. If Germany spent roughly half its money on nuclear energy, it would achieve greater emissions reductions than would be achieved by chasing the mirage of alternative energy sources.
Things may be bad, but never underestimate Germany's ability to make them worse.
As I wrote in “Germany in Trouble,” the German government plans to provide an additional $17 billion in subsidies for the German wind power industry. These new payments will be added to existing alternative energy subsidies, which the University of Cologne estimates will cost $19.3 billion by 2025.
Separately, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the German government “abandoned plans for a massive expansion of gas-fired power plants due to a lack of political support.” The country aimed to add 5 gigawatts of new capacity in 2025 and a further 5 gigawatts by 2028, but the deal was unable to move forward due to the collapse of the coalition government last month.
One last note: This morning I spoke with a U.S. energy industry veteran who is currently in Berlin attending an energy conference. I asked about Germany's mood in “Ocarina of Darkness.” The veteran told me that it was so cold in Berlin that he bought an extra hat to keep warm. “It was super cold, no wind, no sunshine.” As for the mood at the energy conference, he told me, “German industry is fleeing.”
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I was recently on the Americano Podcast with bystander Freddie Gray. We discuss Chris Wright, energy humanism, and U.S. energy policy at length. You can listen to the podcast here.
A few days ago I was on Australian ADH TV with my friend Gerard Holland talking about the recent US election and what might happen under the Trump administration. You can watch the episode here.
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