Is the water crisis worsening in the Northeastern United States?

Guest post by Kip Hansen – December 18, 2024 – 2000 words

Over the past few months, the U.S. media has been highlighting drought conditions in front-page stories such as:

In record time, all but two US states are in drought

and

What is happening in this picture? |Drought

All of these drought claims are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor, which itself is mostly just an indicator based on rainfall (above or below normal).

When one digs deeper and discovers “What happened…?” people discover fact It is worth noting that October 2024 was a dry month in most parts of the country, followed by less than “normal” rainfall in September. That's it, the whole story.

The result is the much-publicized U.S. Drought Monitor map, shown below:

Climate.gov tries to capitalize on this:

“The average October temperature in the contiguous United States was 59.0°F, 4.9°F above average and the second-highest in the 130-year record. October precipitation in the contiguous United States was 0.95 inches, 1.21 inches below average, the same as in 1963 October was tied for the second driest.

So, yes, on a continental average – if this scenario is real and reasonable – October is dry. But almost every news article about the October drought claims to include the following: “Droughts are caused by abnormally high temperatures, which rapidly absorb moisture from the atmosphere and ground.” [source ]. Silly assertion that 59°F (15°C) is “Exceptionally high” is not exactly a scale that can be explained in layman’s terms. October temperatures in the United States may be “warmer,” but not high. These are cool temperatures. [ source ]

But the lack of rainfall in many parts of the country does cause concern.

Northeastern United States

For New York City, nearly all of its drinking water comes from reservoirs in the Catskill and Croton watersheds, and dry weather in late summer resulted in low reservoir levels:

Mayor Adams issues citywide drought watch and orders city agencies to develop water conservation plans, urging New Yorkers to start saving water — November 2, 2024

The embattled mayor is worried: “We are doing our best Make sure we can water the park and fill the pools Summer is coming…”

Where does New York City’s drinking water come from?

It should be clear from the map below that New York City gets its water from far upstate (they call any part of the state above Westchester). The Delaware system of three reservoirs carries water to Ronduit Reservoir, which then carries water through the Delaware Aqueduct to the Croton Watershed system, while the Catskill Watershed carries water from Ashokan Reservoir south to Ken Xiko Reservoir.

If this water is not diverted to New York City, where will it go? Three reservoirs in the Delaware River System will flow into the Delaware River, through Philadelphia, and eventually into the Atlantic Ocean, forming the border between New Jersey and Delaware at Cape May. In the northern part of the Catskill water system is the Schoharie Reservoir on Schoharie Creek, which naturally flows into the Mohawk River (which flows from west to east through central New York State) and is New York State's It is fed by the Hudson River near Albany. Rondout Reservoir has its own watershed, but also delivers water to New York City from Delaware System reservoirs. Rondout Creek flows northeast and empties into the Hudson River in Kingston, NY, while Ashokan Reservoir flows into Esopus Creek in Kingston, NY. Saugerties empties into the Hudson River. All Croton reservoirs will also naturally flow into the Hudson River.

As of October 2024, reservoir water levels were below normal at 63% of capacity:

The share in early December is still a bit low at 66%, which is 16% lower than usual for this time of year:

But notice, just above the lower left corner, there are numbers for precipitation. Rainfall has been above normal in both November and December (so far)

Below we see the conditions at New York City's reservoirs in September 2024, the long so-called hottest summer ever:

Even with less rainfall in September, total water storage is still slightly above normal, reaching 78.2% of capacity. So we can see that the root of the problem is that the rainfall deficit decreased by 2.5 inches in September and the rainfall deficit decreased by 3.3 inches in October. Rainfall fell by a total of 5.8 inches in these two months. But the rebound in November and December did not fully close the gap.

IMPORTANT NOTE: A reservoir like this is best visualized as a bucket with a hole in it. this outflow More or less constant (in a larger sense). generally, inflow Depends on rainfall. But in the New York City system, outflows from some reservoirs flow into other New York City reservoirs. The flows of the two major rivers that flow into the Hudson River from the western part of the central Hudson Valley (the Isopus River and the Round Channel River) are determined by “releases” and spills from New York City reservoirs. Reservoir storage is not a measure of water availability; allow Stay in the reservoir.

New York City average spending 1 billion gallons of fresh water per dayexcluding estimated leak of 35 million gallons per day Lost in transit.

What impact does New York City’s water system have on Philadelphia?

This is an interesting question. Philadelphia and surrounding cities get their drinking water from the Delaware River. Philadelphia is a major U.S. seaport: “The Delaware River Port Complex collectively refers to the ports and energy facilities along the river in the Delaware Valley region of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. They include the Ports of Salem, Wilmington, Chester, Paulsboro, Philadelphia and Camden. ^”

Together, these ports form one of the largest shipping areas in the United States. Most of these ports are concentrated on both sides of the Delaware River, stretching 20 miles from 80 Mile River to 100 Mile River (river miles usually refer to the distance from the mouth of the Delaware River).

Unlike New York City, where the neighboring Hudson River is saltwater, Philadelphia's Delaware River water is fresh, and the main drinking water intake is located around mile 110 of the river (upstream of the port and its potentially polluting activities). However, the Atlantic Ocean is only 110 miles downstream from the water intake.

Saltwater naturally flows upstream from the sea and is blocked by freshwater flowing downstream. The leading edge of saltwater intrusion is called a salt front (sometimes called a salt wedge).

“What is salt front?

“An important indicator for understanding salinity concentrations in the Delaware Estuary (tidal Delaware River and Bay) is the 7-day average position of the salt front, which is a chloride concentration of 250 mg/L based on drinking water quality standards.”

“Salt fronts indicate that water cannot be safely used as drinking water because it is too salty. Since there are no dams on the Delaware River, salty water from the ocean can travel up the Delaware River from Delaware Bay. Although you The salt front is not visible, but its position fluctuates with freshwater inflows, which dilute or concentrate chloride in the river.

The average location of the Delaware River salt front is near Wilmington, Delaware (see map below), but during periods of extreme drought (such as 1960) it can be as far north as Camden, New Jersey (river 102 miles).

So, what does this have to do with New York City? The Delaware River's three major inflows are controlled by releases from New York City's three reservoirs. Much of the Delaware River's natural flow is diverted to supply water to New York City.

Why is this important?

To advocates for Pennsylvania's climate crisis, the advance of the salt front has always been blamed on overly exaggerated predictions of rising sea levels. And, indeed, as sea level rises at the mouth of the Delaware River, it does have a small effect on the upstream movement of the salt front. But the Delaware River is tidal, with tides ranging from 6 to 7 feet at the Delaware-Pennsylvania border and Philadelphia, where sea level has been rising steadily at a rate of 3 feet.⁺ The change has been 1.02 feet per year since 1900, which is equivalent to a change of 1.02 feet in 100 years.

The evidence against “sea level rise” calls is the simple fact that downstream freshwater flows regulate the position of the Delaware Salt Front, and the overall river flow required to stop the Delaware Salt Front depends on natural conditions. New York City allows the release of water from its three Delaware System reservoirs. During periods of drought (when there is less rainfall), the City tends to hoard water and release it grudgingly—never more than is required by long-standing policies established by the numerous agencies and legislative bodies that primarily serve the Delaware River Basin Committee control.

At the bottom, near the red arrow, is the remaining flow after the salt front has passed, keeping the salt front downstream. Diversion outside the basin Up to 900 million gallons of water per day, 800 million of which are used in New York City.

Bottom line:

1. Megacities require large amounts of fresh and clean drinking water. New York City needs billion gallons per day.

2. New York City “steals” most of its water from the Catskill Mountains – or so the people who live there believe, and is protected by arbitrary rules set and enforced by armed New York City agencies, the New York City Department of Environment.

3. In order to meet its water needs, New York City also draws water from the Delaware River to supply cities in eastern Pennsylvania such as New Jersey and Philadelphia.

4. For these densely populated and industrial centers, the solution to “drinking water shortage” has always been to build more freshwater storage facilities and reduce the waste of freshwater.

5. The earth is not short of water, 70% of its surface is covered by water. Suitable nuclear power plants could provide both fresh water and electricity to coastal cities and district heating to densely populated urban centres.

######

Author comments:

I grew up in Los Angeles, California. Then there is a rapidly growing metropolis in a very dry climate, some say “desert”, but more correctly a Mediterranean climate. It also steals water from other places (see the movie “Chinatown”).

My youth was one of consistently sunny days, punctuated occasionally by too much rain and atmospheric rivers that flooded cities, swept away hillside homes, filled concrete “flood canals” and carried us The local park was turned into a lake (on purpose). (To see the blue canals, zoom in on any part of the city.)

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a misleading tool that is often used to intentionally mislead the public. See my previous article on drought.

If one believes the mainstream media, we are living in the midst of a crazy crisis. Hold on to your hat and crank your critical thinking skills knob to the max.

Thank you for reading.

######

Relevant