Cautious optimism over green energy disillusionment – ​​is it worth it?

From Manhattan Contrarian

Francis Menton

For years, it has been obvious to mathematicians that the fantasy future powered by wind and solar energy was not going to happen. Sooner or later, reality will inevitably set in. However, this fantasy lasted much longer than I imagined. Hundreds of billions of dollars in government largesse are a big reason why, flowing not just to green energy developers but also to academic charlatans and environmental NGOs to fan the flames of climate alarm.

Three years ago in December 2021, I asked this question: “Which country or U.S. state will hit the green energy wall first?” When it can no longer be added to the grid, a “green energy wall” will appear. Candidates considered by the post to hit the wall first include California, New York, Germany and the United Kingdom. I wrote at the time:

All of these places, despite their wealth and apparent sophistication, are embarking on their ambitious plans without any detailed engineering studies of how their proposed new energy systems will work or how much they will cost. . . . As these jurisdictions ramp up wind and solar power and phase out coal and natural gas, it's likely that sooner or later one or the other will hit a “wall” — a situation where the power system goes out of service, or prices skyrocket, or both. The combination of both forces the entire plan to be completely changed or even abandoned.

Three years on, Germany appears to be winning the “race to the wall.” After decades of the “energy transition,” Germany closed all nuclear power plants and most of its fossil fuel capacity and built wind and solar power on a massive scale. How about it? The German website NoTricksZone today published an English translation of an article by Fritz Vahrenholt that was published on the site yesterday. climate news (Climate News). The translated title reads “Two brief wind downturns push Germany's power supplies to their limits.” excerpt:

Germany's renewable energy power supply collapsed from November 2-8 and December 10-13 due to typical winter weather conditions with weakened winds and minimal solar radiation, leading to supply shortages, high electricity imports and skyrocketing electricity prices. sometimes, Over 20,000 MWGermany must import more than a quarter of its electricity needs. electricity price Tenfold increase (93.6 €ct/kWh).

This time they (barely) avoided a blackout, importing over a quarter of their power during the wind/sun drought period. However, the sudden large demand for imports caused spot electricity prices to soar in the market, affecting not only Germany but also neighboring countries that supply electricity. Vahrenholt provided this map showing the prices reached during the wind/sun drought in December:

€936.28/MWh is almost equivalent to US$1 per kWh. That's the wholesale price; retail will be at least double that. In comparison, the average electricity price in the United States is well below $0.20/kWh.

Wallenholt plausibly attributes the huge rise in prices to the disappearance of reliable nuclear power plants and fossil fuel plants, leaving Germany exposed to wind and sun:

reason [for the price spikes]: On April 1, 2023 alone, the socialist/green-led coalition government and Merkel’s previous government had decommissioned 19 nuclear power plants (accounting for 30% of Germany’s electricity needs) and closed 15 coal-fired power stations.

Wolfgang Große Entrup, Managing Director of the German Chemical Industry Association, said:

“This is desperate. Our companies and our country cannot afford normal production. We urgently need power plants that can safely step in.

It's also clear from Wallenholz's map how the sudden surge in German demand affected countries that supplied imports for a short period of time, notably Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark and Austria. Here's how Norway reacted:

Terja Aasland, energy minister in Norway's center-left government, wants to cut cables to Denmark and renegotiate power contracts with Germany. He was therefore responding to demands from the right-wing Progress Party, which has long called for it and could win the next election. The Progressive Party believes that price contamination from the south must be stopped.

Sweden says the same thing:

swedish energy minister Ebba Busch Even more clearly: “Industrial economies can hardly thrive on the benevolence of the weather gods.” And speaking directly of Habeck’s green policies: “No political will is strong enough to override the laws of physics—not even Mr. Habeck's.“

When Germany's neighbors refuse to continue supplying imports to Germany during a wind/sun drought, there are blackouts rather than price spikes. We continue to move slowly towards this inevitability.

Other news from Germany is that its auto industry is in trouble (energy prices are soaring, not to mention the EV mandate) and the government has just fallen. Economic growth has stalled. This is what a green energy wall looks like. The election will be held sometime in the new year.

I’m cautiously optimistic that the world will wake up from the green energy nightmare before the damage turns into disaster. Our incoming US administration seems to have caught on. Germany, I'm sorry, but you have to be the guinea pig in this failed experiment.

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