The warming trend from 2013 to 2022 and the extreme warmth in 2023 are “irrelevant” to the decline in outward long-wave radiation caused by rising greenhouse gases. [emphasis, links added]
instead, A new study published in the journal science Considered a decrease in cloud albedo and a consequent increase in ASR (or absorbed solar radiation) (+0.97 to 1.10 W/m²/decade according to ERA5 and CERES respectively) explains the warming over the past decade. (Fewer clouds mean more solar radiation reaches the Earth's surface, warming the planet.)
The rising trend of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is supposed to reduce the Earth’s outward longwave radiation (OLR), OLR drop is considered this The driving force behind modern warming.
Instead, the opposite happened. OLR has been on an upward trend since 2013.
The enhancement of Earth's OLR trend can actually offset the warming caused by ASR and is closely related to the above-mentioned decrease in cloud albedo.
in other words, The total greenhouse effect from increased greenhouse gas emissions has recently resulted in reduce In the context of global warming, partially offset the warming caused by rising ASR.
“The EEI trend and peak in 2023 are not associated with a decrease in outward longwave radiation (OLR), as one would expect from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the absence of shortwave feedback. Instead, OLR has been increasing and is largely offsetting Stronger absorbed solar radiation (ASR) anomalies were observed, which is consistent with climate models.
“The ten-year trend in ASR from 2013 to 2022 reaches +1.10 W/m²/dec−1 in CERES, +0.97 W/m²/dec−1 in ERA5, +1.82 W/m² and +1.31 in CERES A surprising outlier for W/m² in 2023 ERA5.
“However, surprisingly, according to CERES data, the ISR reached positive anomalies of +0.28 W/m² in 2023, well above the previous solar cycle maximum, while the ERA5 forcing still assumes negative anomalies of – 0.08 W/m².
Read more in the Trick-Free Zone
