Mexico’s Emissions Scam—Watt?

not many people know

Paul Homewood

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico

While Miliband wants to lead us to the cliff, the rest of the world is business as usual.

Mexico is another country whose emissions continue to rise. Even their Paris National Data Center makes this clear, as it promises to reduce emissions only on a “business as usual” basis. The resulting target emissions for 2030 will be higher than in 2015!

Mexico has since increased emissions reductions from 22% to 35%, but as Climate Action Tracker points out, they have also increased their BAU:

Mexico’s climate policy continues to regress, prioritizing the use of fossil fuels and dismantling climate-related policies and institutions. mexican Updated 2030 Target (NDC), The emissions results submitted in November 2022 are higher than the 2016 target, violating two agreements under the Paris Agreement and Mexican law – in which governments pledge to improve their targets over time. The updated National Data Center lacks transparency and masks its lack of ambition by calculating forests differently for base and target years. As emissions continue to increase through 2030, Mexico will achieve this modest goal through the policies it has implemented. insufficient”.

While the new target includes a larger percentage reduction, it will still result in higher emissions. The NDC update increases the percentage reduction of the unconditional target by 2030 from 22% to 35% (30% from own resources and 5% from agreed international support), and from 36% to 36% with additional international support. 40%. But the business-as-usual (BAU) benchmark against which the target was set has been revised upwards. In addition, Mexico expects forest emissions sinks to make a greater contribution to achieving this goal. Taken together, this means that the new target can be achieved even if emissions excluding forestry are higher than under the old target.

The 2022 NDC update replaced the 2020 update, which the Mexican court found to be less ambitious than the first NDC in 2016 and therefore violated continued progress in ambition, and was therefore invalid. The 2022 update is less specific about forestry's contribution to the target, which may make it more difficult to argue its ambition.

Mexico pursues a “gross net” approach, which means that it counts only emission sources in its BAU and ignores land use and forestry sinks. However, the NDC does intend to use these sinks to achieve its goals and emphasizes that nature-based solutions are “core” to achieving them. In 2019, reported emissions were close to 200 MtCO₂e, accounting for about a quarter of Mexico’s emissions (exclusive). Land use, land-use change and forestry. Although technically permitted, this accounting method has been criticized for more than two decades as being opaque.

Mexico's 2022 update to its Nationally Determined Contribution removed a target for an emissions peak in 2026 and made no mention of any net-zero emissions or other long-term goals.

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/mexico

In terms of CO2 alone, it's clear that Mexico never had any intention of cutting emissions:

BP Energy Review

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