Guest post by Willis Eschenbach
As an amateur scientist, I am very much in favor of one aspect of the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI). I use it as the world's fastest librarian, able to collect and summarize large amounts of data in minutes.
Recently I thought I could use artificial intelligence to educate myself about the science of autism and vaccines. Please note that I answer this question with almost no knowledge of any basic scientific research on the possible link between autism and vaccines, aside from the many passionate claims on both sides of the issue online.
Here's how I collect and check information. Thanks to the host Charles for reminding me, I used an artificial intelligence called perplexity.ai. I stuck with it for a strange reason – confusion once told me that it was unwilling to answer my questions about rainfall in remote areas of the Sahara because so little data was available that it might produce illusive answers…I Consider this a good sign that it recognizes its limitations.
My problem is Bold Below, my comments are text only, and Answers to confusion are in italics.
Me: List the major studies that show autism is or is not related to vaccinations.
Pay attention to construction. I find it very important when doing scientific research to specifically ask for evidence from both sides of the issue. You want to avoid general questions such as “What to know about autism and vaccines”. With this phrasing, AI often does not fully explore the problem space, missing important evidence from one side or the other.
Here's Confusion's answer to my question above:
Several major studies have investigated potential links between vaccines and autism. Here is a list of key studies showing no link between vaccines and autism:
- Taylor et al. (1999):
- 498 autistic children examined in North Thames, England
- No difference in autism rates found between vaccinated and unvaccinated children
- Autism diagnoses do not cluster after introduction of MMR
- Madsen et al. (2002):
- 537,303 children in Denmark studied
- Children vaccinated with MMR vaccine not at increased risk of autism
- There was no association between age at vaccination, time since vaccination, or date of vaccination and the development of autism
- Jain et al. (2015):
- Approximately 100,000 children with siblings with and without autism evaluated
- MMR vaccination does not increase risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD)
- Danish Studies (1991-1998):
- Includes over 500,000 children
- No link found between MMR vaccine and autism or autism spectrum disorder
- The integrative analysis of Taylor et al. (2014):
- Analyzed 10 studies involving more than 1.2 million children
- Reiterates no link between vaccines and autism
- Proposed MMR vaccine may actually reduce autism risk
Well, I…
Now, as I mentioned above, artificial intelligence does produce hallucinations. So my next pointer to the confused is:
Research that verifies each one is real and not an illusion.
IStudies mentioned in search results will be verified:
- Brent Taylor et al. (1999): This was a real-life study of 498 autistic children in North Thames, England.
- Madsen et al. (2002): This was a real-life study published in the New England Journal of Medicine involving 537,303 children in Denmark.
- Taylor et al. (1999) Reanalysis: This appears to be a genuine reanalysis of the original Taylor study, although I don't have enough information to confirm its exact publication details.
- Hviid et al. (2019): This is a real-life nationwide cohort study in Denmark, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, involving 657,461 children.
- Time trend analysis using the UK General Practice Research Database: This is a real study, although no specific authors are mentioned in the information provided.
Noticing that one study had been omitted, I asked:
Validation 3. Jain et al. (2015) is a real study, not an illusion.
Yes, Jain et al. (2015) is a real study, not an illusion. This study was mentioned multiple times in search results:
- Listed in information from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Vaccine Education Center
- Full citation provided: “Jain A, Marshall J, Buikema A, et al. Prevalence of autism among U.S. children with and without an older sibling with autism, according to MMR vaccine status. American Medical Association Journal 2015;313(15):1534-1540.
- Details of the JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) article are given, including the publication date of April 21, 2015
- The study's methods and results were summarized, noting that it evaluated approximately 100,000 younger siblings and found no association between MMR vaccination and an increased risk of autism spectrum disorder.
- It was cited in Science Daily's article on the MMR vaccine and autism
This study is also cited in documents from Immunize.org, which lay out evidence that the MMR vaccine does not cause autism
Multiple consistent references from these different sources confirm Jain et al. (2015) is indeed a real study examining the relationship between MMR vaccination and autism risk.
Based on the information provided, all of these studies appear to be genuine. However, for some studies, I did not have enough details to fully verify publication information or authorship.
Upon request, Perplexity also provided details of all other studies identified in its research, namely:
- California study comparing MMR vaccination rates with autism diagnoses (1980-1994): This appears to be a real study, although I don't have enough information to confirm the specific authors or publication details.
- Quebec study of 27,749 children from 55 schools: This may be a real study, but I don't have enough information to confirm the specific authors or publication details.
- Danish National Register Study of 537,303 children (1991-1998): This may refer to the study of Madsen et al. (2002) study mentioned earlier.
- The Atlanta study compared 624 autistic children with 1824 matched controls: this appears to be a real study, although I don't have enough information to confirm the specific authors or publication details.
- An English-language study of 12,810 children born in 1991-1992: This may be a real study, but I don't have enough information to confirm the specific authors or publication details.
- UK study of 100,572 children born 1988-1997 using the General Practice Research Database: this appears to be a genuine study, although I don't have enough information to confirm the specific authors or publication details
I found it interesting to see its judgment on the validity of the information being examined.
Continuing, I asked:
Provides a list of important studies claiming a link between vaccines and autism
Based on the search results provided, there are no reliable studies claiming a link between vaccines and autism. Search results consistently show that extensive research has found no link between vaccines and autism. However, a flawed study initially sparked controversy:
Wakefield et al. (1998):
- Published in The Lancet (later withdrawn)
- Suggesting potential link between MMR vaccine and autism
- The study was later found to be fraudulent
- Lead author loses medical license
- The medical journal retracted the paper
It’s worth noting that this study has been thoroughly discredited, and many subsequent studies have also found no link between vaccines and autism.
——————
Look, friends, I know we do have reasons to be cautious about vaccines. These include a dramatic increase in the number of recommended childhood vaccines, as well as an increase in the number of adjuvants, preservatives and other ingredients in modern vaccines.
However, from examination of reliable scientific evidence on this issue, it is clear Autism is not a reason to be cautious. Well-designed studies have repeatedly failed to find any link between vaccines and autism, and no studies have proven such a link. Choose another objection, the one already finished and dusted.
Finally, some people say vaccinations don't really protect us from disease. While this is likely to be true for COVID-19 vaccines, here are the observed case and death rates before and after the introduction of vaccines for various diseases.
Zooming in reveals interesting pre- and post-vaccination morbidity and mortality statistics. What caused the most deaths before vaccination? Whooping cough, also known as whooping cough, also known as croup, kills 30 people per million people. This is followed by influenza/pneumococcal disease (24/million people), polio (22/million people), diphtheria (14/million people) and tetanus (3/million people).
This is what Jonas Salk did with his polio vaccine.
This is where the evidence ends and the discussion begins. First of all, I know people are passionate about this issue. So please don't shoot the messenger.
What I introduced above is How to use confusion or any artificial intelligence to mine scientific evidence Very specific questions about a) autism and vaccines and b) the overall effectiveness of each vaccine. I took no further position other than to advise caution in all things.
Next, the numerous questions about vaccines will not be answered on this page. Therefore, I ask you all not to take sides in your comments. This won't help. As I said above, there are other reasons to be cautious besides the twin issues of autism and efficiency. What exactly does each vaccine contain? What concentration? When, where and how to test?
So I don't want to take sides, but rather invite people to use artificial intelligence to dig out the answers to the specific questions in your mind about a particular vaccine, to look for solid scientific evidence, and to put aside the enthusiastic Internet-based claims and take a favorable view of the current situation. The standpoint of practical exploration of scientific knowledge.
Finally, let me emphasize one thing. As shown in the first picture above, Just as there is no one vaccine, there is no one vaccine problem. Overall there is no good/bad, black/white issue.
Instead, each vaccine and each component of each vaccine has its own story, its own effects, and its own unanswered questions. For example, in the United States, out of caution, children's vaccines do not contain mercury, while adult vaccines contain one millionth of a gram. Different questions, different related questions. Another example. I lived through the era of polio and Jonas Salk’s miracle vaccine. I even worked the night shift for a few months for an adult polio patient who spent the rest of his life in an iron lung and was paralyzed from the neck down… He was married with a child and when he died At that time, he had just completed his residency. I would read to him and play chess with him… Dear friends, you never want to see this happen to anyone, let alone your children.
The Salk vaccine brought huge benefits. I can guarantee we don’t want to go back to those days. Different vaccines, different benefits, different questions, different questions, and no one person can summarize the question “Are vaccines good or bad?”
My best regards to each of you, stay alive in this lovely but deadly world,
w.
polystyrene—I remain persona non grata on X and my account was improperly suspended, as I explain in the blog post below:
I ask anyone on X to use any means to get the X censorship gods to unsuspend my account, @WEschenbach. If you would be honored to link to my blog post above, it will allow my voice to be heard.
as usual: I ask that you quote the exact words you are discussing when commenting so we can clearly understand your topic.
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