Paul Dorian
By early Tuesday, January 21, much of the United States will be in deep freeze, with temperatures likely to fall below freezing in much of the northern United States. Temperatures could drop all the way to the single digits in major cities along I-95 Tuesday morning. Map courtesy NOAA, weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, X)
Overview
An Arctic intrusion linking to Siberia is set to begin early into the weekend as biting cold air from Canada moves south across the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward to the Atlantic coast, leaving much of the country in deep freeze by Monday, Inauguration Day, including the Washington, D.C., metro, where outdoor ceremonies for the swearing-in are planned. Temperatures will drop well below normal across much of the country for most of next week, which is really impressive considering this is the time of year when “normal” temperatures are at their lowest.
The Arctic front leading up to the cold air outbreak will reach the eastern states on Sunday, and a wave of low pressure may form along its border. An Arctic wave may produce some snow accumulation across the mid-Atlantic late Sunday into Sunday night. Another storm system could develop in the Gulf by the middle of next week, potentially bringing snow and ice to parts of the southern and eastern United States. Looking ahead, there's even a chance a third system could form in the southern states by the end of next week.
Some of the air reaching the mid-Atlantic region early next week will come from Siberia on the other side of the Arctic. In fact, the “backward trajectory” model traced the origin of the air mass that arrived in the mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday, January 21, back to land known for its frigid air this time of year. Drawing provided by NOAA
Arctic storm arrives early this weekend
Earlier this month, the central and eastern United States began experiencing a colder-than-usual weather pattern that looks set to not only continue into the third week of January, but also reach more extreme levels. The upper-level pattern across North America has evolved into one that could create a “transpolar” flow, allowing Siberian air to cross the Arctic and flow into Canada and the United States in the coming days. Arctic air will blast across central states early this weekend, with frigid air mass blasting all the way south into the heart of Texas by late Saturday. The Arctic front, the leading edge of the arctic air mass, will slide into the eastern states on Sunday and its progress across the southeastern states may slow. Energy will rotate through the upper trough, which will open the door for Arctic low pressure waves to form along the frontal boundary region. The low pressure system will push increasingly cold air to the Northeast and may produce snow or rain, with accumulations likely to increase over the Mid-Atlantic by late Sunday into Sunday night…possibly on the order of several inches .
The Arctic frontal boundary area will slide into the eastern states on Sunday, with energy moving through the upper-level trough (circled area) helping to create an Arctic low pressure wave. The system will then push northeastward into increasingly colder air mass late Sunday. As a result, accumulations of snow are possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States late Sunday into Sunday night. Map provided by Canadian Meteorological Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Inauguration Day (Monday) Weather
By Monday, January 20, frigid air will develop over much of the country, including the Washington metropolitan area where outdoor events are planned for Inauguration Day ceremonies. Temperatures in the Washington, D.C., metro area could approach 20 degrees by noon Monday, with biting winds that can make it feel colder than it actually is. Temperatures could drop into the single digits Monday night along the Washington-Philadelphia-New York corridor and below freezing across much of the northern United States.
On January 20, 1985, the weather was so cold that all outdoor events for Ronald Reagan's second swearing-in ceremony were cancelled. When Washington, D.C., was sworn in at noon on January 20, temperatures were in the single digits amid a burst of extremely cold arctic air. Map provided by NOAA
The last Inauguration Day to be significantly affected by weather occurred in January 1985 during Ronald Reagan's second term. It was very cold that day in Washington, D.C., the Arctic epidemic spread to eastern states, and all outdoor activities were cancelled. The outside temperature at noon on January 20 was only 7°F, with afternoon wind chills in the -10 to -20°F range. That particular cold snap in January 1985 occurred just after a major stratospheric warming event in December 1984.
On the eve of President Kennedy's inauguration in 1961, eight inches of snow fell in Washington, D.C., causing the region's worst traffic jam to date, with hundreds of cars abandoned on local roads. At sunrise on the 20th, the snow had stopped and the sky cleared, but the weather was still cold. A large group of people worked through the night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue, and despite the cold weather, a large crowd came out for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At noon, the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 19 mph, making it feel like 7°F above freezing. (For some great information on Inauguration Day Weather, visit the NWS website).
As cold air is about to sweep across the Deep South again, “non-zero” snowfall amounts are possible all the way to the Gulf Coast by next weekend. Map provided by ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics
Midweek and weekend storm threat
With temperatures still set to remain bitterly cold across much of the country on Tuesday (with temperatures below freezing all the way to the Gulf Coast), a new wave of energy will flow to the central and southern states. Given the active southern branch of the jet stream, there is a real chance that a low will form over the Gulf of Mexico by mid next week, and then the system could push northeast toward the East Coast. With cold air firmly extending down the Gulf Coast, this system could produce significant amounts of snow and crippling ice into the Deep South and possibly further to the north and east as it pushes toward the East Coast. Looking ahead, there could be another wave of energy moving toward the south-central states by late next week, which could also help kick-start a storm system near the Gulf Coast by next weekend.
Good news…there are only 25 days left until the start of spring training.
Meteorologist Paul Dorrian
Uckfield
arcfieldweather.com
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