The 2024-25 winter monsoon season in Baja has been great so far, with moderate winds almost every day. But an expected factor in the large-scale wind energy recipe is missing. Yes, there is no expected La Niña in the Pacific weather pattern.
Meteorologists have been anticipating La Niña for months, but last week the pattern finally took hold in the tropical Pacific, albeit a weak and short-lived one. A La Niña warning has been issued, with a 59% chance of lasting until April 2025.
During La Niña events, the subtropical jet stream typically moves northward, resulting in fewer deadly windy days in southern Baja California.
This atmospheric adjustment typically results in the maintenance of a low-pressure system south of Cape San Lucas, which strengthens the “boreal wind”—the strong northerly wind that prevails in the Sea of Cortez in winter. We've been seeing this increased low pressure south of Cabo this winter and it's a major contributor to our reliable winds.
Reduce storm frequency: The cooler waters associated with La Niña often result in less frequent storms in some areas. This reduction can influence wind patterns, making wind conditions in the Sea of Cortez more stable and predictable.
La Niña events are typically associated with higher than normal pressure in the central and eastern Pacific. This increases the possibility of high pressure in the North Pacific bringing winds to the Sea of Cortez.
La Niña conditions often lead to more pronounced high-pressure ridges over the western United States, including the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Therefore, we expect more northerly winds.
However, the current La Niña pattern is considered weak, which may result in less consistent impacts compared to stronger La Niña events. While there is a trend for increased high pressure frequency in the Great Basin during La Niña winters, the intensity and duration of these systems can vary. So while high-pressure events are likely to increase, the overall impact is likely to be modest due to the current weak intensity of La Niña.
