Misidized models and statistical fear-Watt get along with it?

A latest research warning published in natural medicine says that unless the implementation of serious emissions, Europe may face 2.3 million examples related to heat every year. The terrible prediction of echoing in headline news has caused a catastrophic future to the entire African continent. However, careful inspection shows that this projection is based on the RCP 8.5 scene, which is an extremely and discipied emission pathway. The continuous dependence on this outdated model is not only misleading, but also actively distort climate debate.

The problem of RCP 8.5

The basic RCP 8.5 of this study assumes that the out of control of coal consumption, stagnant technological progress and the impossible future of population growth. In this case, global carbon dioxide emissions will be increased from 2100 to 2100, which will increase the temperature by more than 4 ° C. But this is reality:

• Global Energy Trends: The consumption of coal consumption of many major economies is declining, and renewable energy is rapidly expanding. Even in China and India, which are still large in coal, the cleaner energy replacement solutions are developing.
• Population dynamics: Global population growth is slowing, and many countries are expected to decline in the middle of this century.
• Technological progress: Energy efficiency, the development speed of urban planning and adaptive technology is far faster than the pessimistic assumptions in RCP 8.5.

These facts make RCP 8.5 unlikely-this is a fantasy. However, it continues to use such research, expansion risk and misleading decision makers.

Vision of defects in the future

The study assumes that Europeans will not be able to adapt to the height temperature and ignore the ability of humans to innovate and adjust. Historically, the society has adopted air -conditioning, improved architectural design and urban greening technologies to reduce the risks related to heat. By ignoring these reality, the study depicts the static crowd that cannot be adapted, which is not realistic and irresponsible.

In addition, although the death related to the heat is emphasized, the study easily omit a greater problem with cold death. At present, as the winter becomes gentle, the cold Europeans are far more than Europeans, and the warm climate may lead to a decrease in the number of deaths related to weather. But this background does not conform to the description of the forthcoming disaster and is often excluded from discussions.

Big situation: heat and cold

In order to grasp the true meaning of climate change, considering heat and cold is essential. Now:

• According to the European Statistical Bureau, European -related deaths exceeded the number of deaths related to the heat.
• The warm winter has reduced the mortality of cold diseases in many regions.
• Adaptive measures (such as affordable heating and cooling) are still the most practical solutions to solve thermal and cold risks.

Ironically, the climate policy inspired by such research may deteriorate the cold -related death. For example, the increase in a net drive policy of zero -driver has increased energy costs (such as gradually eliminating natural gas or expensive renewable energy sources), making disadvantaged groups unable to afford heating.

Why the predictions of these alerts continue to exist

The purpose of continuing the use of RCP 8.5 in research is a clear purpose: fear to sell. The forecast of the end of the world has produced headlines, mobilizing funds and providing reasons for expensive climate policies. But this method has hardly solved the challenge of the real world. On the contrary, it:

• Twisting public views: By paying attention to incredible the worst situation, these studies are more likely to cover up more likely and managed results.
• Misled by misleading policy: Resource steering to the extreme of confrontation assumptions, rather than satisfy compression energy and adapting needs.
• Confusion of science: When the public understands that RCP 8.5 is an outdated ideological relic, it may destroy confidence in the entire climate science.

Better way forward

If we want to protect the crowd from the infringement of death, then the solution is not to model alert, but a practical adaptation strategy:

• Expand the access to the affordable air conditioner.
• Design cities to reduce the impact of urban heat islands.
• Improve the public health system to better deal with heat waves.

At the same time, decision makers must admit that warming is not all bad news-winter will reduce death and energy demand. Balanced, evidence -based methods are essential for the risk of managing climate change without succumbing to hysteria.

Conclusion: enough to explain

Nature Medical Research's predictions of millions of deaths in Europe are rooted in the defective and discredited RCP 8.5 scene. This is not science, but scary research. By exaggerating risks and ignoring human adaptability, this research disadvantage is greater than benefits.

We should not focus on impossible world -end scenes, but we should focus on the policies of toughness, innovation and pragmatic policies to solve the risks related to heat. The public should get a climate discussion that is rooted in reality, rather than a narrative of fear driven on outdated models.

Related