Other things rarely mentioned outside of Wuwt are that any estimate of the nominal value of “GMST” should include propagation of error calculations with confidence intervals (aka uncertainty) of the specified probability (usually +/– 2 Sigma ). If done correctly, it will be found that the uncertainty is so great that the possible nominal value has little practical value, except for the possible annual trend marks.
Based on rationalization, the accuracy can be improved by large quantities, usually at least 2, sometimes at least 3 significant numbers, usually at least 2, sometimes at least 3 significant numbers, usually annual temperature (arithmic average) Improve, sometimes at least 3 significant numbers. The reading and the mid-range value of the average day and night extreme temperatures do not occur simultaneously every day. However, the operation to try to improve the accuracy is The only one It is reasonable to believe that the measured value has the characteristic of stationaryity. This means that the mean or standard deviation varies over time and the data are distributed similarly. in addition, Same The same instrument should be used every time to measure things, which is impossible for moving air quality. It is obvious that any time series with a trend has an average value over time, thus violating the stationarity requirement!
Statistics Rules of experience Say, the standard deviation of the normal distribution can be approximated by dividing the range of the set big data by 4 (or more conservative 6). When an application Rules of experiencethe estimate of annual “average” standard deviation is several degrees, no One hundred degrees, as reported by those who call themselves experts. Obviously, there is a problem with the accuracy of the reported annual and even monthly “average”. One of the problems is that even global surface temperature distributions (not to mention a single hemisphere) can be skewed due to imbalance in the distribution of land and oceans. The cold side is long! In short, another problem is that the variation is not random, as each measurement does not use the same instrument (thermometer), so the site selection conditions (Stevenson screen and surroundings) are not the same, and the same air mass is measured using STP situation. The gusts of each wind move a piece of air (or water) at different temperatures and elevations, thus changing the temperature and pressure of the air quality.
The best Reasonable Do report statistics about the original data that records the temperature, No The measurement quantity correction is invalid and the mid-range value of the arithmetic mean and the sample with insufficient standard deviation is from the unknown calibration state of the first grade that exists in the weather stations present in the year (different but Unknown site selection quality) is xx0 +/- x0 verC.
Cooperation with the so-called abnormality is indeed no It is correct and correct on most of the above questions.
As a post-script, the earth's temperature without humidity (or derivative heat index) is not as informative as the heat index. However, the humidity measurement value does not exceed the temperature measurement value.
