A higher-end severe thunderstorm complex is possible somewhere in the Great Lakes region this evening and tonight. The track of this severe storm complex will be the difference between an outbreak of severe severe weather somewhere in Michigan and a big sky show over southern Michigan.
The entire severe weather situation later today really comes down to where thunderstorms develop over our western states. The farther west the thunderstorms progress, the more vulnerable southern Michigan will be to severe weather.
NOAA's Severe Weather Prediction Office's Storm Prediction Center remains unsure of the exact location of severe thunderstorms late this afternoon. They predict, as do our best thunderstorm models and myself, that thunderstorms will develop over northeastern Iowa or southeastern Minnesota. These storms are expected to form around 5pm today and move into southwestern Michigan around 10pm to midnight.
Here are the best storm forecast models and their radar forecasts from 5pm today to 4am Tuesday. This is a run that started at 10am today. We'll get a more accurate forecast from the same model as we move into mid-afternoon.
This model and most other models have severe thunderstorms developing over the southwestern corner of lower Michigan around midnight tonight. The storm is expected to weaken between midnight and 3 a.m. .
Here is a snapshot of the midnight radar forecast.
Let’s take a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook. They break down various types of severe weather for us.
The first forecast is just an overall look at where the severe weather will be most severe. It shows that as of 12:00 p.m., significant storms are expected to develop over Iowa late this afternoon and move across Illinois into the southwest corner of Indiana and Michigan. Benton Harbor to Battle Creek will be the area of Michigan most likely to experience severe storms. The yellow shaded areas are where storms could still be severe as they run out of natural gas.
This situation has the potential to trigger a severe and lasting storm. The black shaded area below could produce scattered wind gusts of 75 mph or faster. Gusts of this intensity are considered high-end severe weather. This situation is definitely worthy of attention.
When we get these severe thunderstorms, they don't usually have the typical tornado outbreaks. They may embed brief tornadoes in the storm line. The rotation of the tornado will increase the wind force in this remote location and may intensify the damage. A tornado outbreak is not expected.
There is currently a chance of large hail in the northern Upper Peninsula.
Stay tuned here for updates as we get a better idea of where the first thunderstorms will develop and where they will move. Timing is also important because storms can weaken in the middle of the night as instability and energy decrease.
