Photo credit: Sebastian Gabriel
west kauai
today: sunny. Highs will be around 90 degrees near the coast and around 78 degrees above 3,000 feet. Northeast wind gusts as high as 15 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon.
tonight: partly cloudy. Lows will be around 72 degrees near the coast and around 62 degrees above 3,000 feet. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. There will be isolated showers in the afternoon. The highest point near the coast is about 89 degrees and the highest point above 3,000 feet is about 76 degrees. North wind gusting up to 10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. The chance of rain is 20%.
South Kauai
today: Mostly sunny. Breeze. Scattered showers in the morning. High temperature 82 to 90 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
tonight: Breeze. Partly cloudy with some showers. The lowest temperature is about 73 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday: Breeze. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highest temperature 82 to 89 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
kauai mountains
today: Partly sunny. There will be scattered showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. Highest temperatures range from 75 to 85 degrees in the valley and around 68 degrees above 4,000 feet. East wind 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain is 50%.
tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lowest temperatures range from 64 to 71 degrees in the valley and around 58 degrees above 4,000 feet. East wind 10 to 15 mph. The chance of rain is 50%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. The highest points in the valley range from 74 to 84 degrees, and around 66 degrees above 4,000 feet. East winds reaching 15 mph. The chance of rain is 50%.
North Kauai
today: Mostly sunny with some isolated showers. Highest temperatures will be 77 to 90 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
tonight: Partly cloudy with some showers. Lowest temperature 65 to 74 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. There will be scattered showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. The maximum temperature will be 77 to 89 degrees. The chance of rain is 40%.
East Kauai
today: Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly clear. Breeze. Isolated shower. Highest temperature 75 to 86 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy later. Isolated shower. Low pressure 65 to 76 degrees. The chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. There will be scattered showers in the morning and scattered showers in the afternoon. Highest temperature 74 to 86 degrees. The chance of rain is 50%.
summary
Widespread high pressure in the northern part of the state will weaken, causing breezy trade winds to weaken to moderate strength Wednesday through Friday. The weather will remain stable and slightly dry through at least Friday, with light showers expected on windward slopes.
discuss
There is no change to the weather forecast for this morning. A widespread high pressure system remains between 30 and 35N, bringing locally breezy trade winds to the area. Upper-level ridges over the islands help maintain a very stable and mostly dry air mass over the region. Some moist areas remain within a shallow boundary layer. The night started with few light showers in the trade, but a few scattered showers have been picked up on the radar over the past few hours. Showers are expected to continue over the next few hours, mainly in the Windward and Moka areas, before they will ease again this afternoon.
The ridge to the north is expected to weaken, which should ease trading tonight and Wednesday. Conditions will continue to be stable due to limited moisture in the trade wind flow. As a result, windward rainfall is expected to be light, and with the exception of a few afternoon showers on Big Island's Kona slopes, leeward areas should be dry.
Over the longer term, trading is likely to strengthen over the weekend, with the GFS and ECMWF indicating that showers may increase.
aviation
Breezy trade winds will continue today before tapering off towards the end of the week. Light showers and low clouds will favor windward and Mauka areas, with the potential for brief MVFR. Otherwise, VFR shall prevail.
Due to strong trading, AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence in the lee of island terrain is in effect and will remain in effect throughout the day.
ocean
Broad surface high pressure over the central and eastern Pacific will remain stable today, maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through Wednesday morning. Disturbance will occur in the northeastern part of the state later tonight and into Wednesday, weakening ridges. SCA conditions may weaken as early as Wednesday as winds weaken to moderate to strong winds, then continue into Friday. High pressure will strengthen over the northern part of the state over the weekend as the disturbance weakens and dissipates. The state and its upstream trade are likely to return to moderate to locally strong levels this weekend into early next week.
According to inshore and offshore buoy data, the current long-period south swell continues to remain within the 16-second range. Therefore, the High Surf Advisory (HSA) is extended into today as surf heights slowly decrease to near or slightly above HSA standards. This expansion will continue to slowly decline on Thursday before falling to background levels on Friday into the weekend.
Rough swells along the east coast will remain slightly elevated today before slowly falling as trade weakens upstream of the islands and eventually ends. Additionally, a small amount of northerly swell energy appears to have reached the inshore buoys and will continue to fill today. This small surge can provide a small boost to north and east exposures. East coast swells will be below average by Wednesday and will drop further Thursday into Friday as the northeastern swell quickly recedes and surface trading and upstream easing.
North facing coasts may see minor fluctuations today through Wednesday with a combination of small to medium northwest swells and the aforementioned northeast swell, but this will subside quickly Wednesday night.
fire weather
Continued breezy and dry conditions will raise additional fire weather concerns today, but critical conditions are not expected. Conditions are expected to improve as winds weaken Wednesday into Friday.
HFO Observations/Warnings/Recommendations
High surf advisory tonight at 6pm (HST): Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Shores, Kahulawe, Maui Leeward West, Kona, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Honolulu Metro, Ewa Plains, Molokai Leeward South, Lanai Leeward, Lanai South, Central Maui Valley South, South Maui/Interior, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Southeast Big Island.
Small craft advisory in Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, leeward waters of Big Island, waters southeast of Big Island until 6 a.m. Wednesday (HST).
Data provided by NOAA.gov
