An early afternoon severe weather update moves severe wind risk to southwestern Michigan. This update also moves less significant low-end severe weather opportunities further east into southern Michigan.
The following is the severe weather forecast issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at 12:30 p.m. Note that the most significant eastward movement is the black shaded area of the strong gust forecast. Black shaded areas represent forecast wind gusts that could reach 75 mph or faster. If scattered wind gusts reach 75 mph, severe damage could be caused. The change in the weather forecast is really just a small tweak in the big picture, but can have a significant impact on the actual weather in southwestern and south-central Lower Michigan. Please note that the southern half of the Grand Rapids area is now also under severe gusty threat. Yellow areas show areas where the storm is expected to be in the weakening phase after midnight. Stronger storms are expected to develop in southwestern Michigan between 9 p.m. and midnight.
While a tornado outbreak is still not expected here, the chance of a tornado has increased to five percent in the southwest corner of our state. This means that as a thunderstorm complex exits Lake Michigan, there may be enough distorting surface winds to spin the thunderstorm and create a tornado. This is a common weather condition in Niles, Benton Harbor, Dowagiac, Decatur, Paw Paw and Kalamazoo.
The Storm Prediction Center wrote in the discussion, “Rapid thunderstorm development is expected in parts of northeastern Wisconsin/Iowa in the mid-afternoon, and the storm will quickly move east-southeast into northern Illinois and eventually into Indiana/ Parts of lower Michigan. Although details of the maximum risk corridor vary by solution, model guidance generally agrees that a large arcuate complex is likely, and severe events are expected to occur in this area, with the potential for isolated events. Severe damaging winds.
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