There are severe thunderstorms in the area, including a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for the Kane County area Sunday night with winds of 70 mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for northern Illinois from 5:55 pm (CDT) on July 14 to 01:00 am (CDT) on July 15.
Arlington Heights and northwest Cook County could experience about an inch of rain, along with strong winds and severe lightning.
weather radar Shows severe thunderstorms sweeping across northern Illinois.
Severe storms have been fluctuating in intensity, with a particularly severe storm hitting South Elgin and Elgin around 9:50 p.m., affecting Schaumburg, Palatine, Rolling Meadows, Arlington Heights and other nearby communities. However, radar forecasts show severe weather moving south through Bloomingdale and Elmhurst.
A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for much of Cook County south of Arlington Heights and south of Arlington Heights around 10 p.m. This article does not include all weather warnings…just a sample of them.
You can also take a look Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds
Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Chicago, IL, Cicero, IL, and Evanston, IL until 11:00 PM Central Time pic.twitter.com/EXPXuw2Med
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) July 15, 2024
Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued for parts of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin until 1 a.m. Central Time pic.twitter.com/RIRakVtRhk
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) July 14, 2024
(1/6) Strong to severe storms are forecast late this afternoon and overnight. All serious hazards may occur. See the chart for more details on the approximate timing of thunderstorms. pic.twitter.com/tUdrUDqUTN
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) July 14, 2024
O'Hare predicts…
Sunday night: Showers and thundershowers, mainly before 1 am. Some storms can be severe and produce heavy rains. Low pressure is about 72 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts could range from half an inch to three-quarters of an inch.
Another round of severe thunderstorms with at least an inch of rain is possible after 6:00 PM Monday night.
on Monday: There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Mostly sunny with a high near 93.
Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly between 7pm and 1am. Some storms can be severe and produce heavy rains. Low pressure is about 72 degrees. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible.
Tuesday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84 degrees.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, with low pressure around 66 degrees.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81 degrees.
Wednesday night: Mostly sunny, with a low around 62.
Thursday: The weather is sunny and the maximum temperature is close to 76.
Thursday night: Sunny, low around 58.
Friday: The weather will be sunny with a high near 79.
Friday night: Mostly sunny, with a low around 60.
Saturday: Sunny, with a maximum temperature near 82.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy, with the lowest temperature around 63 degrees.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84 degrees.
Temps Lake…
Southern Michigan Lake water temperature
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1014 AM CDT Sunday, July 14, 2024
Lake Michigan water temperature…
Chicago Shore………73.
Chicago Crib…………66.
Chicago Buoy………71.
Wilmette Buoy…………..71.
Walkergan Buoy…………..68.
Winthrop Harbor Buoy…69.
Michigan City Buoy…72.
Nanzhong Lake Buoy…..70.
Central Lake Buoy…68.
Beizhong Lake Buoy……67.
july.chicagoweatherstation.com
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Regional Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
Chicago/Romeoville, IL
Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 652 PM CDT
.
– Further storms are forecast tonight, with the threat of severe weather and flash flooding continuing.
– Monday will be hot and very humid, with a heat index of 100-110 degrees Fahrenheit and a heat warning likely to be issued in at least some areas.
– Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected Monday into Monday night (areawide) and Tuesday (primarily I-55 and the Southeast), with an ongoing severe flash flooding threat.
– The pattern eventually moves from Tuesday night into Wednesday, with calm returning Wednesday night.
&&
.discuss… Posted on Sunday, July 14, 2024 at 320pm CDT
As of Monday evening:
By Tonight:
A complex convective scenario will unfold late this afternoon into the evening, as a clear MCV for the path of strong convection overnight across the region. In the short term, widespread scattered convection continues to penetrate parts of northeastern Illinois and northwest Indiana. However, these showers and isolated thunderstorms have so far (thankfully) shown no signs of intensification in a still less than favorable thermodynamic and marginal deep wind shear environment. If this continues, the main threats to this activity will be localized lightning strikes and heavy downpours by around 5pm CDT.
The presence of MCVs near the MS River entering the region during peak heating and the presence of large unstable reservoirs certainly increases concerns about scattered severe weather threats as well as flash flooding. Given the current position of the MCV, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the northwest CWA as early as 4 to 6 p.m. Tonight brings PoP to where possible (~60-70%/many storm types coverage). Deep shear will increase (if not more, reaching 35 kt), so the initial storm pattern is likely to be a mix of supercellular and multicellular clusters. Tonight should see a trend toward cold pool development and transition into the bow segment as the day progresses, which will ultimately lead to more progressive storm movement than Saturday night.
In terms of hazards, the initial supercell will likely be able to handle all hazards, although the extent of any tornado threat will depend on the degree of low-altitude shear increased by the enhanced upper-altitude flow associated with the MCV, as the LCL will certainly be low enough. The initial supercell will also be able to produce large hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates despite high humidity and freeze levels. Overall, the biggest threat, especially at night, should be sporadic damaging winds. As the LLJ intensifies along with the MCV flow, it may also be necessary to monitor the development of mesovortices and QLCS tornadoes.
Finally, last but not least, with the severe flooding last night in Rockford and nearby areas of northern Illinois, coupled with the very high humidity, flash flooding remains a concern. We have issued a new flood warning for all counties except Livingston, Ford, Iroquois, Newton, Jasper and Benton. If propagation is associated with a cold pool and MCV progression clears deep convection east of our region at midnight or later, the potential for severe flooding may be reduced. Once an organized storm group/possible MCS reaches our southernmost CWA counties, faster spread may be most beneficial. Since the Kankakee Valley's sandy soils are less susceptible to flash flooding, we have chosen not to consider our southernmost counties given the above, but cannot rule out the need for an extended watch tonight.
Monday to Monday evening:
Another round of thunderstorms will follow in the late afternoon to early evening and early night, following potentially dangerous heat and humidity. This round will come with the threat of severe severe weather (damaging winds and tornadoes) and flash flooding.
There are enough signals throughout the guidance that there will be a long enough lull in convective activity on Monday to bring high temperatures and humidity closer to expectations. Not that confidence is high that there won't be “surprises,” but the footprint of any thunderstorms before mid-afternoon will be low enough to not have a material impact on cloud cover, temperatures, and dew point temperatures. Temperatures are in the low 20s Celsius 850 MW, with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s Celsius 925 MW, with highs expected to be in the low to mid 90s Celsius locally, possibly the warmest areas in the heart of Chicago's urban heat island. Depressive dew points will reach into the high 70s (a little lower in Chicago), and dew points in agricultural areas may approach the 80s, resulting in heat indices reaching 100-110 degrees Fahrenheit. has chosen not to issue a heat advisory for this forecast suite, but anticipates that we will be required to issue one for much of the CWA, assuming no major surprises in the near future.
A weather-clear threat of severe flash flooding will continue late afternoon into the evening and possibly early overnight. Coherent and robust mid-level shortwaves and maximum velocities will intercept a strongly unstable environment (up to 3-5k J/kg MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates) and erode the lingering ceiling beyond 21z. The maximum mid-level speed and enhanced low-level airflow will produce the strongest deep and low-level wind shear profiles in this section, with speeds as high as 50 knots and 30-35 knots respectively. In high-altitude west-northwest flows, there is usually sufficient height steering for initial supercell patterns or mixed supercells and multicell clusters in these settings. Over time, there should again be a transition to linear QLCS or arcuate segment mode, although the exact details are (needless to say) uncertain.
Taking the above into consideration, SPC's Level 3, Level 5 (Enhanced Risk) Severe Threat seems quite reasonable in terms of pattern recognition. The most obvious severe threat is damaging wind gusts, with clearly damaging potential of 70-80 mph gusts. This is especially the case assuming a relatively quick transition to a more linear pattern (not always a sure thing). Whether in supercell or QLCS mode, tornadoes will also be a threat given the favorable low-level shear/helicity and LCL height, resulting in a Level 2 5 (5% chance) risk from the SPC. Finally, the threat of severe hail may be smaller due to chaotic linear storm patterns, a very wet profile and high freeze levels, but certainly cannot be ruled out.
Flash flooding will once again be a significant threat due to previous very wet conditions and 150-200% of normal PWAT near or above 2 inches. It looks like we may need another flood watch for flash flooding in most if not the entire region. The parallel orientation of deep wind shear vectors (westerlies) and convection swarms from west to east will also enhance the threat. Exactly how long the severe flash flooding threat will continue into Monday night is uncertain, but I feel comfortable with the absolute highest PoP (70-80+%) likely to occur in the evening. After midnight, the threat of additional storms may end sooner than suggested by the grid forecast. Downgraded the PoP slightly and changed the Thunder wording to an overnight opportunity to account for the possibility of an early end time.
Castro/New Weather Bureau
