There is a moderate chance of tropical development in the Atlantic, with the possibility of a tropical depression forming by the weekend. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicate that tropical waves could provide a boost to the disturbance in the region, increasing storm activity and giving it the chance to become a tropical depression over the weekend. As we can see, there is still a long way to go before entering into favorable development conditions. Low wind shear and higher atmospheric humidity also contribute to the formation of the tropics. One, suggested this would be a broader area of storm activity as the storm moves through the Greater Antilles this week. By Days 6 and 7, the computer forecast showed that the system had entered a clockwise circulation around the Bermuda High, moving it near the southeastern United States coast. What's nice about it is that it moves the storm toward the East Coast of the United States rather than into the Gulf of Mexico, which could threaten our landfall. The formation in July shows the likely formation and trajectory of areas where NHC has potential development. , then moves northward through the influence of the Bermuda High, moving it away from the southeastern United States coast, consistent with the deterministic forecast shown above. Be sure to stay up to date with all the latest forecast information from the WDSU First Alert Weather Team on all of our social media accounts, online at wdsu.com and on the air.
There is a moderate chance of tropical development in the Atlantic, with the possibility of a tropical depression forming by the weekend.
Tropical analysis:
Currently, there are no significant changes in the widespread storm area.
The circled area is an area of very large circulation, but without much storm activity. Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicate that tropical waves could provide a boost for severe weather in the region, increasing storm activity and giving it the chance to become a tropical depression over the weekend.
The yellow dotted line is the tropical wave, and as you can see, there is still a long way to go before we get into favorable development conditions.
This week, that energy will move into warm waters in the 80s, favoring tropical developments.
The system will also experience lower wind shear and higher atmospheric humidity, which also contribute to tropical formation.
You can also see through Saharan dust analysis where the system will experience higher humidity.
Forecast data:
One of our best forecasts for the tropics suggests more widespread storm activity as it moves through the Greater Antilles this week.
By Days 6 and 7, computer forecasts showed the system had entered a clockwise circulation around the Bermuda High, moving it near the southeastern United States coast
The forecast doesn't describe a very strong storm at all, but the best thing about this solution is that it moves the storm toward the U.S. East Coast rather than into the Gulf of Mexico, which could threaten our landfall.
Looking at possible development areas this time of year, we still need to monitor the system closely.
The July formation shows possible formations and trajectories, right where NHC has potential development areas.
You look at the favorable areas and routes in August, we see areas that threaten New Orleans.
Summary:
Currently, most data shows the system moving toward south Florida and then northward through the influence of the Bermuda High, taking it off the southeastern U.S. coast.
This is entirely consistent with the deterministic prediction shown above.
Right now, there is one Low chance Southeastern Louisiana will be affected by this storm.
However, be sure to stay up to date with all of the latest weather forecast information from the WDSU First Alert Weather Team on all of our social media accounts, online at wdsu.com and on the air.
