National Grid bosses have warned that blackouts will occur before the end of the century unless the south-east pays more for power than other regions. [emphasis, links added]
In private conversations with the energy industry, ESO executives claim the network has become so congested that “Blackouts in the Southeast by 2028”” said an industry insider.
They blame the looming threat on the shift to unpredictable wind and solar power, Plus critics say outdated market rules are exacerbating bottlenecks.
ESO is working to introduce so-called zone pricing, in which If demand is higher, electricity providers in the Southeast can get paid more than elsewhere.
A second energy industry source confirmed ESO 'very concerned about lighting in the area'It added that if the problem is not resolved, the possibility of power outages in the next few years is “credible”.
ESO said on Tuesday its official position was not predicting blackouts in 2028, but declined to comment on private remarks.
A spokesperson said:
“As a prudent system operator, we regularly assess the future challenges of decarbonizing the UK electricity system, while maintaining security of supply and managing costs.
“European Southern Observatory's analysis does not indicate that blackouts will occur as a result of current market arrangements.
“This demonstrates the need for us to continue to use our operational toolkit to balance the nation's electricity system.
“However, we expect reforms to wholesale electricity markets, accelerated delivery of electricity networks and the delivery of new generation generation and storage will create a more efficient electricity system for the future.”
Electricity supply from renewable sources such as wind and solar will surge this decade The government is pushing for a net-zero grid by 2030.
But with many offshore wind farms in the UK being built far away from key demand areas such as London, this will also require massive investment in grid infrastructure to ensure power can be delivered efficiently across the country.
Experts and the European Southern Observatory believe this is hampered by existing grid arrangements, with the whole of the UK operating as one electricity market.
Current systems largely ignore the reality of how much power can be moved from north to south due to physical limitations on transmission cable capacity.
It also forces the European Southern Observatory to balance the system to keep power flowing, for example by paying wind farms in Scotland to stop generating electricity while paying gas-fired power plants in the south to turn on.
It often has to make these decisions within an hour, and at a huge cost to consumers.
A recent study by FTI Consulting estimated that these “limited” payments would reach £2 billion by 2030 and around £5 billion by 2035.
Jason Mann, an energy expert at FTI Consulting who conducted an electricity market study for the government last year, warned: Balancing the Southeast will become increasingly difficult in the coming years as the grid becomes more constrained.
“As we move to a more intermittent system based on renewable energy,” he said, The challenge of balancing the grid is only going to get bigger, especially with the current national pricing regime.“
The issue has prompted the government to consider major reforms to the electricity market, possibly dividing it into regions, each with their own electricity prices.
This will encourage power companies Build factories close to where power is needed.
Reading break from The Telegraph
